JUBI SPECKMAN

This week, two important conversations unfolded in Cape Town and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

At the Mining Indaba in Cape Town, global mining leaders discussed partnerships, investment and the future of critical resources.

At the Argus Fertiliser Conference in Dar es Salaam, industry players tackled a different but deeply connected challenge: how to make fertiliser production economically viable.

These conversations should not happen in silos. Fertiliser sits at the intersection of mining, energy, trade and food security. How we price it, produce it and govern it will determine economic stability and social cohesion across the Global South.

It is derived demand, shaped by what farmers can earn in output markets, the predictability of prices, and the return on investment per hectare. The World Bank has consistently shown that farmer uptake of inputs responds far more strongly to price certainty and market access than to subsidies alone. When output markets are volatile or logistics unreliable, even cheap inputs fail to translate into productivity gains.

This matters because availability and affordability do not always move together. Fertiliser can be physically present in a market, yet remain economically out of reach. And without targeted incentives, the private sector will reliably deliver availability, but not affordability.

That tension sits at the heart of today’s fertiliser debate. Fertiliser is not an abstract policy lever. It is an energy-intensive, capital-heavy industrial product. Africa imports roughly 80% of its fertiliser requirements. In South Africa, the bulk of that fertiliser is used by field crop farmers producing grains, oilseeds and sugar cane.

Global price dynamics feed directly into domestic food systems. The World Bank’s fertiliser price index rose sharply in early 2025, driven by strong demand, trade restrictions and production shortfalls. While prices remain below the extreme peaks of 2022 and 2023, they are still above pre-Covid levels. For producers, this means higher working capital requirements, tighter margins and increased exposure to volatility.

Trade and capital flows are increasingly moving between politically aligned partners, often at higher cost and lower efficiency.

Crucially, fertiliser production competes for inputs with other industries. When prices rise in mining, chemicals, shipping or energy, fertiliser producers absorb those costs long before farmers ever see a bag of product.

Geopolitical risk is no longer an external shock; it is embedded in fertiliser economics. The Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted nitrogen markets and global gas supply. Export controls, sanctions and trade restrictions continue to distort fertiliser flows. China’s intermittent export restrictions have added further uncertainty.

The World Bank has explicitly identified trade barriers as a contributor to fertiliser price pressure in 2025. In parallel, shifting trade alignments are reshaping supply chains. The World Economic Forum’s Global Co-operation Barometer shows that co-operation is fragmenting.

Trade and capital flows are increasingly moving between politically aligned partners, often at higher cost and lower efficiency. For fertiliser producers, this translates into higher freight costs, insurance premiums, financing constraints and supply risk.

Regional integration frameworks offer part of the solution, but only if they are implemented with industrial realism. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has the potential to reduce bottlenecks, harmonise standards and support regional fertiliser value chains.

Africa has phosphate rock, natural gas and sulphur. Beneficiating these resources locally could reduce dependence, stabilise supply and create jobs. However, regional production only works if plants operate at scale.

Traffic reform with infrastructure, energy security and long-term offtake agreements will not unlock investment. Similarly, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) has historically supported African exports into the US market, but its future is uncertain.

With the right co-ordination, Africa does not just become a fertiliser consumer; it becomes a competitive agricultural player supporting food security, rural livelihoods and long-term economic growth

We can invest in efficiency, precision formulations and plant optimisation. We can partner with farmers on soil-specific products that improve yields to reduce waste. We can work with financiers to structure blended finance and long-term contracts.

But we cannot solve affordability through price suppression without destroying viability. Nor can we absorb geopolitical risk, energy volatility and infrastructure failures indefinitely.

The affordability we speak about is not price per tonne. It is about value per hectare, yield stability and market access. If public institutions want cheap inputs and private producers need commercial returns, the solution is not confrontation. It is alignment. Governments must focus on policy certainty, energy reliability and trade facilitation. Development agencies must crowd in private capital, not crowd it out.

Producers must commit to the reliability of supply and regional integration. The prize is significant. With the right co-ordination, Africa does not just become a fertiliser consumer; it becomes a competitive agricultural player supporting food security, rural livelihoods and long-term economic growth.

Resources alone do not create prosperity. Systems do. Fertiliser is at the centre of that system. The question is whether we are prepared to treat it that way.