Western Cape exporters believe it is far too early to celebrate an end to the war in the Middle East, which has disrupted global supply chains, and citrus farmers fear a rough season.
Terry Gale, chair of Exporters Western Cape, told Business Times this week that the Gulf states are major importers of South African citrus fruits, and it is hoped the war will be over by the time the season begins.
“Iron fruit exporters are at the end of the grape season, the stone fruit is also coming to an end, so 80% of product was delivered prior to the start of the war on February 28,” Gale said. “The concern now is the coming citrus season, which starts in a few weeks’ time.”
Hopes that US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the war would see the reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane were dashed as wrangling over the details of the deal continued.
Gale said exporters remained “very apprehensive”, and without a complete ceasefire in place it was too early to assess future prospects.
“They do not want the risk of exporting product, and at the end of the two-week ceasefire it’s back to square one again, and the exporters are left with product on the water that will then need to be shipped to India, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka at huge additional cost and the possibility of the product spoiling.”
Events such as the Iran conflict highlight the urgency of diversifying transport modes, improving rail reliability and strengthening co-ordination across fuel distribution networks
— Ernst van Biljon, IMM Graduate School
Gale said the war exposed exporters to risks including cost escalations, possible fuel shortages, uncertainty about trade-lane reliability, pre-planning of shipments, port congestion and rerouting of containers.
Bianca Botes, managing director at Citadel Global, told Business Times on Friday that while Iran and the US were set to hold peace talks in Pakistan, the ceasefire appeared to be fragile.
“Iran accused the US of several breaches of the ceasefire agreement, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz once again,” she said. “While Wall Street saw a significant rally yesterday, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.5% and the Dow and Nasdaq both gaining near 3%, futures came under pressure in after-hours trade on the back of the tension, with S&P futures down 0.2%.”
Botes said Asian markets also appeared cautious, with major indices such as the Kospi and Nikkei closing in the red.
“Oil prices saw a rebound as tensions remain high, gaining 2.1% to trade at $96 a barrel after retreating to $90 a barrel yesterday. The dollar is holding steady, while gold is also holding onto its recent gains, to trade at $4,712 an ounce. However, this morning, the metal is marginally in the red.”
She said the rand had made significant gains, trading as low as R16.30 against the dollar, but accusations from Iran over the ceasefire pushed the local currency slightly weaker as the market watched the situation unfold.
Ernst van Biljon, head lecturer for supply chain management at IMM Graduate School, said: “What makes this disruption particularly significant is that it is not only a pricing issue, it is an operational one. South Africa’s logistics system is deeply dependent on diesel-powered road freight, and when fuel costs spike rapidly, the impact is not linear.”
He said South Africa’s heavy reliance on road-based freight, combined with limited alternatives and existing infrastructure constraints, leaves the system highly exposed to global fuel disruptions.
“Events such as the Iran conflict highlight the urgency of diversifying transport modes, improving rail reliability and strengthening co-ordination across fuel distribution networks.”
While the transition to alternative fuels and electrified transport has largely been framed as a sustainability imperative, the current crisis highlights it as a resilience strategy, Van Biljon said.
“While fuel markets may stabilise if geopolitical tensions ease, the lesson for supply chain management is that shocks of this nature do not only increase costs — they alter system behaviour.”
He said the organisations that navigate this best will be those that can adapt quickly, rebalance service and cost trade-offs, and build greater flexibility into their logistics networks.
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