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The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has cut its forecast for citrus exports this year by more than 4-million cartons, citing lower-than-expected harvests of mandarins, navel oranges and grapefruit, although a stronger lemon crop has partly offset the decline.
The industry body now expects exports of 205.3-million 15kg cartons for the 2026 season, down from the pre-season estimate of 209.4-million cartons released in March.
The biggest downward revision came from navel oranges, where the export estimate has been reduced by 4.6-million cartons.
The CGA said increased rainfall in the Eastern Cape had resulted in larger fruit sizes, affecting export volumes. Around 75% of the navel crop has already been packed, with fewer than 6-million cartons of late navels still to be harvested.
Mandarin citrus fruit exports are now expected to be 2.7-million cartons lower than initially forecast after the completion of harvesting of the mandarin varieties Nova and Leanri. Packing has shifted to later varieties, including Orri, Nadorcott and Tango.
Grapefruit exports have also been revised lower, by 1.7- million cartons, as northern production regions completed their packing season.
The association said volumes of premium Class 1 and Class 2 fruit were below previous years, while more fruit had been diverted to processing factories.
In contrast, the lemon crop has outperformed expectations. The export estimate has been raised by 5.4-million cartons, with most growing regions nearing the end of the season. In the Eastern Cape, the country’s largest lemon-producing region, some packhouses have less than 10% of their crop still to pack.
The association said the industry had now reached the peak of the export season, placing significant pressure on logistics, particularly at Durban’s port, where shipping delays have been reported.
Growers have also had to contend with flooding in parts of the Eastern and Western Cape, rising input costs and weaker market conditions that have squeezed farm profitability.
International challenges have added to the pressure. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a market that traditionally accounts for about 20% of South Africa’s citrus exports, has disrupted trade, increased shipping and diesel costs, and extended transit times.
The CGA also warned that any escalation affecting the Red Sea or the Port of Jeddah could further disrupt export routes.
TimesLIVE
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