Over the past decade, populism has tested the supposed benefits of globalisation, unsettling the political consensus that once championed open markets and free movement. What began with Brexit has evolved into a durable shift: nations are turning inward, shielding domestic industries and redrawing the map of global cooperation.
The World Trade Organisation’s authority is waning, tariff barriers are rising to levels unseen in decades, and preferential regimes such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) are under review. Against this backdrop, the G20 inequality report released ahead of the Johannesburg summit this month issued a stark warning. It traced the widening gap between and within countries from post-pandemic shocks, the war in Ukraine, climate disruptions and mounting debt in developing economies — all exacerbated by fragile tax and welfare systems.
For smaller, open economies, these shifts are existential. In Lesotho or Mauritius, where manufacturing depends on predictable market access, each new tariff threatens jobs and stability. The challenge for Africa is not to lament the erosion of the old order but to seize the chance to shape a new one rooted in its comparative advantages.
This very issue, the reshaping of the global order and its implications for African economies, was explored at last week’s International Women’s Forum in Cape Town, where I had the privilege of moderating a panel. The discussion, attended by business leaders including Irene Charnley, underscored a simple truth: Africa’s collective response to global realignment will define its position in the next chapter of global growth.
The first imperative is integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), ratified by more than 48 countries, has the potential to raise intra-African trade by over 80% and boost collective income by $450bn (R7.8-trillion) within a decade, according to the World Bank. This is not merely an economic arrangement, it is a statement of intent to build continental resilience through scale, cooperation and market depth.
If the global economy is fragmenting, Africa’s response must be integration — grounded in trust, scale and shared opportunity.
Equally transformative is the deepening economic corridor between Africa and the Middle East. Trade and capital flows from Asia increasingly pass through the Gulf, with Dubai emerging as a critical bridge between global finance and African opportunity. The Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) has become a hub for companies investing across the continent, leveraging its geographic reach, robust regulation and deep capital pools.
This corridor, stretching from Lagos to Dubai to Mumbai, forms what Standard Bank’s chief economist Goolam Ballim calls a “geographic arc of opportunity.” With collective output approaching $3-trillion, Africa has become a credible investment destination offering diversification and long-term growth. As Gulf states and Asian powers look southward for new markets and partnerships, Africa’s strategic relevance rises.
For Standard Bank, this realignment is both timely and strategic. Our expanding presence in the DIFC, alongside our new representative office in Cairo, positions us at the centre of this corridor connecting Gulf capital with African enterprise. The aim is clear: to channel long-term funds into infrastructure, renewable energy and logistics, the foundations of the continent’s next growth cycle. With Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds holding more than US$4-trillion in assets, the appetite for sustainable, long-horizon investment is unmistakable.
Africa’s fundamentals remain strong. The continent’s GDP is projected to grow by more than 4% in both 2025 and 2026, outpacing the global average of 3%. The World Bank’s “Africa’s Pulse” (April 2025) highlights the region’s resilience, underpinned by rising domestic consumption, urbanisation and infrastructure renewal. Falling inflation and stabilising currencies are strengthening purchasing power, while policy reforms aimed at improving governance and public service delivery are reinforcing investor confidence.
Sustained progress demands institutions that inspire confidence. Governments must commit to the rule of law, while policymakers, business leaders and financial institutions strengthen transparency, education and regulatory integrity. These are not peripheral issues; they are preconditions for prosperity.
If the global economy is fragmenting, Africa’s response must be integration — grounded in trust, scale and shared opportunity. By aligning its markets, mobilising its capital and investing in its people, the continent can convert fragmentation into advantage, defining its own terms of engagement in a world in flux.
• Montjane is CEO of personal & private banking at Standard Bank
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