The 13th edition of the Investec Cape Town Art Fair (Ictaf) drew more than 34,000 visitors this year, its highest attendance to date. The numbers, alongside reports of strong sales across booths, point to a market that continues to gather momentum. African contemporary art is attracting not only attention but also increasingly capital.
However, the question lingers. Does that momentum translate into something more sustainable?
In a recent Art in Focus vodcast on Investec Focus Radio, Frank Kilbourn and Ashleigh McLean reflected on what record footfall means when it comes to long-term value. Both approach the market with a degree of caution, shaped by its recent cycles.
Kilbourn pointed to the rapid rise of African figuration as a telling example. What was once a focused area of interest quickly became, in his words, “a super-heated little bubble”, where demand outpaced context and prices surged accordingly. As sentiment cooled, some of those same works reappeared at auction at significantly lower values.
“One must distinguish between long-term trends, short-term trends and these super-heated little bubbles,” he noted, drawing a clear line between sustained growth and temporary spikes.
At the same time, he acknowledged art resists neat comparison with other asset classes.
“I seldom fall in love with a share,” he said. “But art allows you to fall in love with the work.”
For collectors, that dual return, emotional and financial, remains part of the appeal.
McLean shared a similar view of the market’s volatility, though she was careful not to frame it as instability.
The art world likes to pretend it’s not like other commodities,” she said. “But it’s a really slippery fish.”
Prices can move quickly, often driven by visibility and validation, but she argued value is built more slowly. “I like to play the long game. We need to think about a 20-year trajectory.”
Against that backdrop, the fair’s record attendance reads less as a definitive signal and more as part of a longer pattern of growth. Interest is deepening, but the underlying dynamics remain complex. Liquidity, research and context continue to shape outcomes as much as headline sales figures.
There are also gaps in the market that point to future opportunity. McLean noted work by female artists still tends to trade below that of their male counterparts, often by as much as 30% despite comparable quality. It is a disparity more seasoned collectors are beginning to pay attention to, suggesting value in this space is not always where the spotlight falls first.
If this year’s fair signals anything, it is that the ecosystem is expanding. What follows will depend less on momentum alone and more on how that growth is understood and sustained over time.
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