With Steenhuisen out, DA set to be hostile to ANC, say analysts

The DA appears to be returning to the days of being louder and harsher in its criticism of the ANC after the exit of its leader John Steenhuisen, also agriculture minister, from its leadership race.

However, the party has been warned to not overlook the pros of having its national leader serve in the ANC-led government of national unity.

Debate rages within the DA as to whether it’s beneficial or detrimental to the blue party’s brand to have its federal leader serving in a cabinet led by a president from the ANC.

The issue came to a head when Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, hours after Steenhuisen’s withdrawal announcement, told his city council caucus he was seriously considering entering the leadership race.

“Whatever I decide to do, if I do stand as leader, it is still my clear intention to remain as mayor and to seek re-election shoulder to shoulder with all of you.”

Now considered a frontrunner, Hill-Lewis has long been under pressure to run against his friend. He had consistently said he was not willing to go toe-to-toe with his mate.

Should that scenario materialise at the DA congress in April, that would mean the DA would have to elect a parliamentary leader for its National Assembly caucus, with Hill-Lewis allowed to run the party from the Cape Town Civic Centre.

The party’s federal constitution permits this, and this was the arrangement when Helen Zille led the party when she was Cape Town mayor between 2007 and 2009 and later on as Western Cape premier.

University of Johannesburg professor of political studies Mcebisi Ndletyana said he believed it was important for a DA leader to have a national profile, and a cabinet position provided that platform.

Ndletyana said he suspected the DA might reconsider its plans after the upcoming 2026 local government elections.

“It’s a sensible to retain him there, but after the 2026 elections, with national elections ahead [2029], it becomes a problem because he will still have a city-wide profile, but he will certainly not have a national one.

“His continuing role at a mayoral level will not give him the kind of profile that is necessary to lead a national campaign. So they may be doing it now, but most likely they will be forced to reconsider that decision after the local government elections.”

Ndletyana conceded that Steenhuisen had succeeded in leading the DA to claw back lost support from its core constituencies in predominantly coloured and white areas.

Any cabinet position is simply a distraction.

—  Daniel Silke, political analyst

But, Ndletyana said, the former DA chief whip had struggled to help his party break its growth ceiling, which required raising support in predominantly black areas.

“The ANC is no longer the traditional home of the Africans ― that’s the constituency that remains a possibility for the DA. That’s where their potential recruits are. John was definitely not the guy to turn that possibility into reality.

“He was just too similar to [former DA leader] Tony Leon. He was a clone.

“And he was also vulnerable to attacks on his character, qualifications for leadership, and he became a subject of ridicule, that he had only matric. His alleged abuse of a party-allocated credit card was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

“Remember, the DA had very high standards for itself. So to have a leader who not only has matric but is also a Jacob Zuma-like character in a way. I mean, you earn so much money, yet you are taken to court because you are failing to pay your credit card and you’re abusing the funds of the party.”

Political analyst Daniel Silke said Steenhuisen’s exit exemplified the “tough balancing act” of serving in the GNU and remaining a strong opponent of the ANC, while also facing voter fragmentation.

Silke added the DA needed a new vision as it entered its “next phase”.

“The DA might become more strident in its critique of the ANC from the GNU as it attempts to differentiate itself from the ANC and the accusations that the party had become captured or a lapdog of the ANC.

“If that is the case, GNU tensions can rise within the environment of the local government elections campaign for this year, and the GNU might face a tougher test should the DA become more vocal and attempt to be seen as that alternative government in waiting. That is clearly the next phase in the DA as it moves into 2029.”

But unlike Ndletyana, Silke believes it was a mistake for Steenhuisen to take up a ministerial post while he was DA incumbent leader.

“One of the problems for Steenhuisen was that the leader of the DA should not have taken an executive position, and the future leader should also devote their time to not being in cabinet and ultimately realise and develop a vision for the party, considering the party’s strategy will be to take power in 2029.

“Any cabinet position is simply a distraction. While the honour and bright lights of the executive no doubt are attractive to some, this should be rejected by a future leader and they should devote their attention to running the party rather than running a complex government department.”