The price of putting meat on the table is fast becoming a luxury for many South Africans — and just as households start adjusting their shopping baskets, new blows are looming at the petrol pumps, and when Eskom’s tariff increases kick in on April 1.
In the past year red meat — literally the cost of a braai pack — has quietly turned into the biggest driver of food inflation. While shoppers may have noticed a few rands shaved off vegetables and staples, the real story is unfolding at the butchery, where prices have outstripped almost everything else in the food basket.
Stats SA data shows that between January 2025 and January 2026, meat prices surged sharply. Rump steak jumped 35%, stewing beef 28.8%, mince 26.3% and sausages 26.1%. Even pork chops, often seen as a cheaper alternative, rose by 22.8%.
By contrast, key staples are getting cheaper. Cabbage is down 17.1%, potatoes 15.7% and oranges 14.5%. While this should bring some relief, nutritionists see it as a signal that protein is steadily slipping out of reach.
Dietician Nathalie Mat says rising prices are reshaping diets, but not in an obvious way.
“Beef is one of the most price-inelastic foods in South Africa,” she said. “Even as prices rise, many households are reluctant to give it up. Instead, families are ‘trading down’, swapping expensive cuts like steak for cheaper options such as mince or burger patties, especially for braais and shared meals.”
Mat says there are ways to adapt without sacrificing nutrition. She encourages households to diversify protein sources, adding plant-based options like lentils, chickpeas and beans to stretch meals further. Eggs and tinned fish also offer affordable, good-quality protein, while reducing meat portions and increasing vegetables can cut costs and improve health.
But while consumers adjust, economists say the bigger picture is more complex.
Agri-economist Wandile Sihlobo says fears of runaway meat prices are understandable, but may be overstated.
He says households are already under strain, and disease outbreaks — including foot-and-mouth disease in cattle and African swine fever in pigs — have heightened concern about supply. But production remains relatively stable.
Slaughter rates in both industries are still “reasonably robust”, suggesting “there is no major shortage of meat. In fact, some of last year’s price spikes were driven more by panic buying and strong consumer demand than actual supply constraints.”
Sihlobo says that while farmers face financial pressure and disease-control measures could disrupt supply, successful vaccination efforts could ease price pressures. More broadly, he expects food inflation to slow in 2026, supported by strong harvests and stable supplies of grains, fruit and vegetables — though prices will still rise, just more slowly.
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Dr Cecile Duvenhage, an economics and finance lecturer at the University of the Free State, warns that the looming petrol price hike could quickly reverse recent gains.
According to data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the price of petrol will increase by about R4.50, while the wholesale price of diesel is projected to jump by about R7.75 next month. This is in addition to a 21c/l increase in the fuel levy, due to kick in next month.
“The imminent petrol shock illustrates the transmission of inflation,” Duvenhage said. Despite easing headline inflation, “underlying pressures persist”, with fuel and meat remaining key drivers.
“An R8/l increase will raise commuting costs and inflate food and goods prices through higher logistics expenses,” she said, noting that higher transport costs affect everything from farm production to supermarket shelves.
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The impact could be significant. South African Revenue Service data suggests inflation “could rise above 5% by mid-2026″, potentially forcing policy responses and putting further strain on households.
Consumers are already feeling the pinch, agreeing in online discussion groups that red meat is considered a luxury and lamb chops completely unaffordable.
Kaylin Spiers, a Sandton resident who describes herself as “a low-iron girly”, says she has cut back on red meat, replacing it with chicken, tinned fish and mince bulked up with lentils.
Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity’s Mervyn Abrahams said food inflation is “currently beset with interconnecting crises impacting household affordability”.
“Overall food prices might be coming down, but they could start increasing again as the Middle East war starts impacting us through petrol and diesel price increases on the farms. Our food is generally carried far from where it is produced to where it is consumed, so transport is a big factor.”
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He warns that rising energy costs will intensify the squeeze. An electricity tariff hike of 8.76% due in April for Eskom customers and in July for municipal users will hit low- and middle-income households hardest.
Abrahams calculates that an 8.76% increase for a household using 350kW of electricity amounts to about R103.50 extra a month — eating up nearly half of the R249 minimum wage increase that came into effect in March.
“And if petrol goes up, so will the cost of public transport. This is the storm in which households find themselves,” he said. “Electricity is critically connected to food — both to preserve and for cooking, so price increases directly impact food insecurity and drive hunger.”
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