In 2016 then DA leader Mmusi Maimane announced that South Africa was entering an era of coalitions.
Maimane made this prediction just before the local government elections, which caught the governing party napping. The ANC would go on to lose its most strategic municipalities in Gauteng, Eastern Cape and see its support drop significantly in KwaZulu-Natal.
Maimane was proved to be correct. The DA criss-crossed the globe, learning from countries such as Germany about coalitions and what it would take to run a country through a multi-party government.
While the DA was taking notes, the governing party, the ANC, refused to acknowledge what was coming. Despite all signs pointing to its decline, the ANC did nothing to research its future in coalition governments. It failed to adapt to its position as the opposition in hung municipalities and continued with business as usual.
This would hurt the ANC in later years. Months before the elections, the DA proposed to every platform that the electoral legislative frameworks needed to catch up with the state of South Africa’s democracy and the current reality.
“If coalitions are to be the future in South Africa, then parliament needs to take the necessary legislative steps to ensure that they are stable and able to deliver. Many other countries have done just this, and are governed by successful, stable coalitions.
“If we fail to stabilise coalitions, the poorest communities will bear the brunt of their dysfunction, since they are most reliant on government services,” the DA said in 2024.
This warning was not felt by the ANC, and today, with coalitions firmly entrenched in every sphere of government, the DA’s predictions are proving to be right.
The effects of the ANC’s cognitive dissonance have resulted in unstable coalitions in local and provincial governments, some of which affect the poor.
If we fail to stabilise coalitions, the poorest communities will bear the brunt of their dysfunction, since they are most reliant on government services.”
— Democratic Alliance
In Johannesburg, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s own interventions are yet to produce results. Ramaphosa had taken it upon himself to intervene to save a failing ANC mayor from an ousting over his incompetence. As a result, the taps run dry, the streets are dirty, and crime continues to ravage the city.
Recently, the poorly constructed coalition led by the ANC in Johannesburg set the wheels in motion for a motion of no confidence.
TimesLIVE reports indicate that the ANC’s own allies are planning to usurp mayor Dada Morero’s powers, accusing him of failing in his duties.
At the centre of this conflict is the position of City boss. One may not be faulted to presume that whoever prevails as the city manager would be just a figurehead to allow for more plunder, whatever the cost.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC and its allies, the IFP and DA, have been on each other’s throats. Having failed to lead service delivery departments, the DA finance MEC took the initiative to place an ANC-led department under his intervention with plans to do the same with more departments run poorly by the ANC.
The IFP is charged by the ANC with using its Cogta position in the province to upstage it in municipalities. The two parties have tabled motions of no confidence against each other in several municipalities as retaliation. The effects of this are sure to be felt by the province, with the MK Party lurking in the background to eat the carcass of the coalition.
An MK Party, which has less-than-desirable individuals, some of whom have been at the centre of state capture, running a province as big as KZN is a frightening thought.
It was only after the 2024 elections, where the ANC experienced a disastrous outcome, that the party moved with a quicker pace to draft a coalition bill.
The ANC and the DA proposed a 1% threshold for parties to get a seat in the council or national legislature, which was rejected by the smaller parties. The smaller parties saw this as a way to ensure that the two majority parties remained in power while their positions were threatened.
It is now back to the drawing board for parliament.
What is clear now is that parliament must take a coalition draft bill seriously and as a matter of urgency. Parliament must also never allow the ANC to hang on to power through a back door.
Coalitions are the future of South African politics; maturity is essential.
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