KUSENI DLAMINI | Careful crafting needed to promote SA-US trade links

President Donald Trump’s announcement this week that South Africa will be excluded from next year’s G20 summit in Miami is more than a scheduling decision. It is a calculated diplomatic signal — the kind of message Trump often directs at both allies and adversaries. And though the move may be largely symbolic, it raises longer-term questions about the US’s strategic posture on the continent and, more importantly, about the resilience of US-South Africa commercial ties that have taken decades to build.

The US has historically viewed South Africa as its most important trade and investment partner in Africa — not merely just another emerging market, but a strategic anchor for US influence on the continent. The US’s entrenched position in South Africa’s economy and society is envied by China, Russia, India and the Gulf States, and actively emulated by European partners. From a people-to-people perspective, more than 70% of South Africans hold a more favourable view of the US than of any of its adversaries.

US companies are among the most trusted and admired employers of choice in South Africa, thanks to their commitment to ethics, skills transfer, technology/knowledge transfer, corporate social investment, enterprise development and supply chain opportunities for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The US should not lightly cede its strong position in South Africa — and Africa — to any or all of its geopolitical competitors.

Let me be clear: the US-South Africa trade and investment relationship is, in substance, the strongest and most productive partnership anywhere on the African continent. It presents a strategic opportunity for both nations to strengthen partnership in ways that yield sustainable benefits for ordinary Americans and South Africans alike.

South Africa is home to more than 500 US companies — more than in any other country in Africa! US companies directly employ over 250,000 South Africans, a figure that rises into the millions across supply and value chains. US foreign direct investment in South Africa exceeds $7.5bn, while the country serves as a regional centre of excellence for advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, energy, consumer goods and digital services. Joburg has Africa’s largest concentration of US multinationals. Why is that?

Let’s remember that South Africa is Africa’s most industrialised economy, home to the continent’s most sophisticated financial services sector and its most efficient globally connected logistics gateway — all underpinned by a world class constitution that protects property rights, rule of law and human rights.

Let’s remember that South Africa is Africa’s most industrialised economy, home to the continent’s most sophisticated financial services sector and its most efficient globally connected logistics gateway — all underpinned by a world class constitution that protects property rights, rule of law and human rights.

The SA-US relationship is a two-way street. More than 22 South African companies operate in the US and support about 30,000 jobs. South African investment in the US is about $6.3 billion — and rising — as more companies look at opportunities to expand existing plants and open new ones in response to incentives from the authorities at federal and state levels.

However, the relationship between these two great countries has of late found itself anchored on unhelpful negative narratives, which must be effectively addressed to unlock a positive reset of the relationship. Both countries — their people and businesses — stand to benefit from a positive and constructive relationship.

I strongly believe we need to deliberately and intentionally craft and promote a unifying, powerful and positive forward-looking narrative grounded in fresh research. The American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa recently commissioned new research, to be released early next year, aiming to highlight the full value of its members — not just to South Africa, but to the US.

This is a very significant initiative, especially in this era of tariffs. Early indications from this research emphasise the significance of partnerships and collaboration in our increasingly complex global world. On the trade deficit between the two countries, we are finding that this is not a sign of economic weakness but is largely indicative of strategic input sourcing by the US. For example, in 2024, 42% of goods imported from South Africa — worth about $6.1bn — were industrial supplies and critical minerals essential for US manufacturing. These were not finished goods displacing US jobs; they were raw materials fuelling its industry.

When we look beyond goods, the story is one of a very strong US balance of payments surplus. In 2024, the US recorded a $1.33bn services trade surplus, and a surplus of $1.26bn in investment returns. This highlights the US’s comparative advantages and the sophisticated offerings of its firms. In short, South Africa generates substantial returns for US investors, demonstrating the strategic value of this relationship far beyond trade flows.

This relationship, like any other great partnership, has never been about the absence of challenges, but about the shared courage to overcome them. Nelson Mandela once said: “Partnerships across the globe are not merely desirable, but essential for human progress. In our interconnected world, the fates of nations are inextricably linked.”

The US and South Africa’s fates are inextricably intertwined through the common and shared values of democracy, human rights, rule of law, property rights and social solidarity. However, we have to be very open and honest about areas of divergence, which must be urgently and effectively dealt with in areas of foreign policy, geopolitics, BBBEE, land expropriation and the alleged mistreatment of Afrikaners.

What is encouraging is that through effective diplomacy, the areas of divergence can quickly and effectively be turned into areas of convergence. This, among other things, requires a de-escalation of tensions and a lowering of negative political statements on both sides.

Let’s allow the quiet diplomacy currently being driven by the technical teams assembled by both Presidents Trump and Ramaphosa to do their work, uninterrupted by political posturing of any sort. South Africa needs to have one dedicated voice articulating a consistent and constructive narrative.

The different voices conveying conflicting and sometimes inflammatory messages won’t take us anywhere. The two helpful options open to South Africa to rebuild relations with the Trump administration are to be deliberate and intentional about positive messaging to Washington; and, avoid negative statements that may upset the White House.

This seems to be the secret sauce applied by many countries that successfully reduced their tariffs to reasonable levels. South Africa and the US need to double down and invest massively in the reset of this strategically significant relationship — to benefit their respective people, companies and national strategic interests.

• Dlamini is chairman of the executive committee of the South African Institute of International Affairs at Wits University, and president of the American Chamber of Commerce South Africa. He writes in his personal capacity