EDDY MALOKA | It’s time for SA to face up to a fast-changing future

With South Africa finding itself, for the first time since 1994, on the receiving end of tariffs and sanctions — ostensibly as punishment for its stubborn pursuit of an independent foreign policy — the message should by now be clear: the days of being the world’s darling are over.

This is a nation whose 1994 “miracle” transition lifted it out of the isolation of its pariah-state apartheid years. Since that time, South Africa has worked hard to integrate itself into the international community; to serve as a role model and to act as a moral voice in global affairs. Now it is evident: there will be consequences.

South Africa’s response to these should be measured and informed by history, and the country should pursue a multi-pronged approach. First, it should not withdraw from the world, sulk, become demoralised, live in isolation, or adopt autarky. Second, while remaining active in the global system, the country should simultaneously adopt an autocentric development strategy — one that elevates its productive forces along the lines of Samir Amin’s concept of “delinking”. This should involve comprehensive development aimed at pushing the country’s economy past the one-trillion-dollar mark. South Africa has the means, capacity and political will to eradicate abject poverty, as China did for its billion-strong population.

Third, South Africa could learn from Russia and China’s efforts to build national resilience in the face of external threats. Beijing has initiated a “stress test” to prepare for possible sanctions similar to those imposed on Moscow. Russia’s strategies — such as accumulating foreign exchange reserves; diversifying the economy through import substitution; strengthening international partnerships; and reducing reliance on a single currency — have proved particularly successful.

South Africa could learn from Russia and China’s efforts to build national resilience in the face of external threats.

Fourth, the foreign policy that has guided South Africa over the past three decades must be examined and difficult questions asked about its ongoing relevance. It was crafted for a different era and a different global context. one in which a newly democratic South Africa was welcomed with open arms. That world is fading. The decades ahead — up to 2050 and into the late 21^st century — will be shaped by significant changes driven by three historical forces: geopolitical shifts, the diffusion of frontier technologies, and the advent of human space travel.

The geopolitical and economic landscape will shift as the polycentric system replaces the current one. Such historical changes are often marked by upheaval — and are unpredictable and nonlinear in their trajectory. The powerful will target the weak; the bullies will throw their weight around to assert dominance.

Frontier technologies — in the digital, physical and biological domains — will reshape the world. The 21^st century will also be remembered as the Space Age. Since the Neolithic Revolution, when humans moved from caves to domesticating plants and animals, civilisations have risen and fallen. Although history has seen many technological breakthroughs since that time, we still live in a three-dimensional reality. The current wave of technological change, however, is set to transform that reality, creating a world where humans coexist with AI-capable humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles. Our three-dimensional experience will expand into virtual reality, multiverse experiences and interplanetary travel.

In this context, the foreign policy designed for South Africa’s post-apartheid transition will require rethinking to make it fit for purpose in the 21^st century. One part of this new foreign policy should focus on continuity while making strategic adjustments regarding the world, multilateralism, Africa and the Homefront. A focus on the world will help us adjust to the emerging polycentric order.

The foreign policy designed for South Africa’s post-apartheid transition will require rethinking to make it fit for purpose in the 21^st century. One part of this new foreign policy should focus on continuity while making strategic adjustments regarding the world, multilateralism, Africa and the Homefront.

The composition of the Global South is expected to change as countries such as China, India and Brazil are projected to soon join the prestigious league of developed nations. Our “South-South Relations” will need to adapt to this reconfigured membership, just as our “North-South Relations” must adjust to a West that is in decline.

Multilateralism will remain with us for a long time to come, but certainly not as it was defined over the past eighty years, since the end of the Second World War. As the West’s influence declines, its dominance within the multilateral system will also diminish. Calls for reform of the United Nations (UN) are likely to intensify. It is only a matter of time before resistance to such UN reforms gives way. South Africa should, therefore, prepare itself for the day when the UN Charter finally gets amended to expand the permanent membership of the Security Council.

On the African continent, we must regain lost ground while ensuring that the Homefront is united behind a renewed foreign policy direction and a self-reliant, autocentric development path.

Meanwhile, rapid advances in government and private sector research suggests it is only a matter of time before a breakthrough that will see humans conquer outer space — not just for scientific research and space tourism, but also its militarisation and use as a resource for economic growth. The race into outer space has gained unprecedented momentum in recent years. Despite notable progress through the South African National Space Agency and the South African Radio Astronomy Observatory, the country still lags behind its peers. To remain globally relevant, South Africa must elevate its space ambitions to a strategic level, integrating outer-space objectives into our foreign policy. These objectives should not be limited to a cautious focus on Earth and observing distant stars. We should be as bold as other nations, aligning ourselves with global trends towards the Space Age. When others reach the Moon and Mars, we should aim to be there too.

In a word, we must return to the drawing board and embrace the changing reality before us. The world has transformed, and so must we. Its future is uncertain and its course will be nonlinear. Volatility is already evident, and more challenges lie ahead. We must be ready. As the saying goes: Adapt or Die!

• Maloka is a visiting professor at the Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation at the University of Johannesburg