For some weeks now a political storm has been brewing in the US over the bombing of civilian boats in the Caribbean Sea that are alleged to be carrying drugs towards the US. More than 80 people have been killed, some of them in an incident now being labelled a war crime.
Earlier this week the US violently seized a Venezuelan oil tanker in international waters on the basis that it was “violating” unilateral US sanctions against Venezuela. President Donald Trump boasted that the US would keep the oil. If any other country did the same, it would be called piracy — a serious crime — but times have changed since Trump retook the White House.
Alongside this has been a continuation of US attacks on South Africa for “white genocide”. The so-called genocide is a lie debunked many times over, but the government in Washington has long severed any relationship with facts or reality.
When it took over the G20 presidency two weeks ago, the US immediately denied access to South African officials, meaning they are unable to participate in discussions for the next G20 summit in the US next December.
Local commentators and politicians have been in a tailspin. Some suggest, rather implausibly, that it is possible to reach a working arrangement with the US that would benefit both countries.
It is not. This does not mean we should not try to mitigate the enormous risks presented by hostility from a key trading partner, but this is also not the US of Clinton, Bush or Biden. This is a geopolitical and global trade hellscape of narcissism, recklessness and destructiveness.
The US has been withdrawing from key international bodies, trying to render them dysfunctional. Its tariff regime breaks nearly every trade rule there is.
In recent days US Vice President JD Vance expressed what came across as some regret that the US fought the Nazis alongside Europeans during World War 2. It is in this milieu that Denmark, a long-time ally of the US, has now declared in its national security strategy that the US has become a “national security risk”. The designation is unsurprising in the context of Trump’s intention to annex Greenland.
The US domestic environment is not much better.
The Immigration & Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) has been supercharged to hunt immigrants like wild animals on the streets. Wearing masks and deploying excessive force, agents have detained countless US citizens in the belief that they “look like immigrants” — which means they are black or brown.
At a personal level, Trump has continued to show worrying signs of some mental illness, as yet undiagnosed
At a personal level, Trump has continued to show worrying signs of some mental illness, as yet undiagnosed. He lies constantly, denies things he said the day before, or reverses himself on issues numerous times.
The reality is that no country has been able to have a normal, predictable relationship with the US since Trump became president.
South Africa’s options are truly limited. Countries and companies that have managed to escape Trump’s wrath are those that have paid him bribes. Saudi Arabia has, among other moves, “invested” $2bn (R33.5bn) in his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s private equity firm.
Qatar has “donated” a $400m private jet to his “presidential library”, which he can use whenever he likes.
Those who are suggesting that some kind of “normal” deal between the US and South Africa is possible need to consider the two options South Africa has.
The first is to pay Trump a bribe, such as donating prime real estate in the Kruger Park for a 7-star Trump Lodge with a private airstrip built with taxpayers’ money. This would entail endless hunting permits for his often-sozzled son, Donald Trump Jr. He apparently loves hunting.
The second is to hand South Africa over to Trump to run between office naps by remote control from Washington. This would entail telling South Africa’s parliament what laws to abolish or amend, to withdraw the court case against Israel, and to let AfriForum run the government.
Barring these options, we are left with a hairy three years of the remainder of Trump’s term, which may only be tempered by the likelihood of Democrats taking over the House of Representatives.
Trump’s behaviour points to a world in which democracy is a thing of the past and the Western institutions that have anchored international trade and other arrangements are rendered dysfunctional and irrelevant.
In their place would be three axes, dominated by the US, Russia and China. Standing in the way of this is China’s accelerating ambition to replace the US as the global leader.
Time will tell which scenario eventually plays out — but genuflecting in front of a deranged narcissist like Trump won’t do us any good.
• Zibi is the leader of Rise Mzansi
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