RISENGA MALULEKE | Why South Africa must update its poverty lines

“A house cannot be repaired by guessing where the roof leaks,” an African proverb warns. Poverty in South Africa is much like that roof — latent when ignored, yet corrosive, seeping into every corner of society.

We cannot address what we cannot see. Measuring poverty accurately is not a technical exercise; it is the sine qua non of social justice, human dignity and sustainable development. How deprivation is defined and tracked shapes public understanding, informs policy and directs resources to those most in need. It is for this reason that Stats SA, following extensive consultation, was mandated to establish a credible and transparent monetary measure of poverty to support evidence-based policy.

In 2012, South Africa introduced its first official national poverty lines (NPLs), using the internationally recognised cost-of-basic-needs approach. The food poverty line, the lower-bound poverty line, and the upper-bound poverty line capture different depths of deprivation. They reflect the daily realities of households forced to choose between food and transport, rent and school uniforms, heating and health care.

The food poverty line represents the nadir of deprivation: the minimum income required to meet basic dietary energy needs. It is anchored in the estimated cost of acquiring 2,100 kilocalories per person per day, calculated using a reference food basket of 46 food items derived from observed consumption patterns.

Notably, the 2023 food reference basket includes 21 VAT zero-rated items, which are identified only after the basket is constructed and therefore do not influence either the rebasing process or the costing of the poverty lines. The lower-bound poverty line and the upper-bound poverty line extend this measure by incorporating essential non-food needs at increasing levels of adequacy.

Prices rise, economic landscapes evolve, living standards shift and consumption patterns transform. Poverty lines must therefore be periodically rebased to maintain their analytical relevance and policy usefulness. In this context, Stats SA rebased the poverty lines in 2023, aligning them with expenditure patterns observed in the 2022/23 Income and Expenditure Survey.

The revised thresholds of R777 for the food poverty line, R1,300 for the lower-bound poverty line, and R2,635 for the upper-bound poverty line are notably higher than the 2011 benchmarks of R760, R1,058 and R1,558, respectively. These increases reflect improved measurement of current consumption patterns and living costs, rather than a sudden escalation in poverty levels.

The revised thresholds of R777 for the food poverty line, R1,300 for the lower-bound poverty line, and R2,635 for the upper-bound poverty line are notably higher than the 2011 benchmarks of R760, R1,058 and R1,558, respectively. These increases reflect improved measurement of current consumption patterns and living costs, rather than a sudden escalation in poverty levels.

The trajectory of poverty presents a nuanced tableau. Using the lower-bound poverty line, poverty declined from 57.5% in 2006 to 37.9% in 2023, reducing the number of people in poverty by 4.1 million over 17 years. This is meaningful progress, yet this still leaves more than 23-million people considered poor in 2023 using the lower-bound poverty threshold. This is roughly 2.5 million less since 2015.

Poverty remains profoundly unequal. Children experience the highest poverty rates, followed by women and rural communities. Provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, Limpopo and North West consistently carry the heaviest burden. Food poverty, while reduced, still affects more than 10-million people. As Chinua Achebe presciently warned, quoting WB Yeats, “When the centre cannot hold, things fall apart.” Persistent poverty threatens social cohesion if left unaddressed.

South Africa’s social assistance system has been one of the most effective tools in reducing poverty. Grant beneficiaries increased from about 3 million in 2000 to more than 19 million today, with the child support grant reaching more than 13-million children. When social grants are excluded from household income, the number of people living in food poverty almost doubles. This is clear evidence that social protection is a lifeline that stabilises households and society, a societal bulwark against structural vulnerability.

Income-based measures, while indispensable, are not exhaustive. People can have sufficient money, yet still face deprivation in health, education, housing or access to services. They may feel socially or psychologically excluded. Recognising this complexity, Stats SA will this year release updated multidimensional and subjective poverty indicators as complementary measures to the money-metric measures. These updated datasets will provide a richer, more nuanced understanding of poverty, helping policymakers design interventions that go beyond income support to address structural and lived inequalities.

Accurate poverty measurement is central to South Africa’s development commitments. Sustainable Development Goal 1, Africa’s Agenda 2063, and the National Development Plan all commit to eradicating poverty and reducing inequality. These ambitions cannot be realised without reliable data: policy cannot target what it cannot see, budgets cannot prioritise what is poorly measured, and progress cannot be credibly tracked without up-to-date benchmarks.

Globally, poverty measurement continues to evolve, with the international poverty line recently increasing from $2.15 (R36) to $3 a day, a recognition that minimum living standards change over time. South Africa’s rebased poverty lines align the country with this global shift while remaining grounded in local realities.

Updating poverty lines is not just a technical exercise; it is a moral and policy imperative. It ensures that decisions are rooted in evidence, that progress is measured with intellectual honesty, and that the commitment to “leave no-one behind” is translated from rhetoric into action.

Poverty is plainly visible in lived experience, yet its deeper, long-term effects act like a structural fault where cumulative impact slowly erodes the social bonds and collective wellbeing that define our shared humanity.

Rigorous measurements are therefore essential, enabling policymakers to assess the depth, distribution and persistence of deprivation.

South Africa’s rebased poverty lines are more than statistics; they provide the analytical lens to confront poverty, allocate resources purposefully, and build a resilient, inclusive and equitable society.

• Maluleke is South Africa’s statistician-general and head of Stats SA