The South African democratic order has, since May 2024, resembled a house of cards, a structure destined to disintegrate because of its weak foundation. It faces the whirlwinds it must survive to show its resilience. The fragile governing coalition, also known as the government of national unity, is renewing local government mandates.
The May 2024 political shifts, central to the post-1994 democratic outcomes, continue to redefine the political landscape, regardless of history or nostalgia. Society, thanks to social media and press freedom, is becoming more aware of the power of its vote.
Since the last local government elections in 2021, more political parties and independents have been registering to enter the public representative industry. While this is plausibly emboldening the consolidation of a multiparty democracy, it is unlikely to consolidate democracy, let alone one favourable to the developmental demands of South Africa from its brittle breeds of leadership.
The disintegration of the liberation movement, the ANC, into distinct formations competing for political power, added to the fragility of a centre that is not holding firmly enough.
If, as should be the case, the GNU’s objective is to address the social and economic justice challenges South Africa faces, success may hinge on what voters choose in the upcoming local government elections. Though the incumbent and fragile political leadership can and should help, how it does so will determine whether its influence proves beneficial or detrimental to South Africans, in whose hands the country’s fate ultimately lies.
As water taps fail, electricity cuts persist, waste accumulates, and infrastructure deteriorates, citizens’ trust in government erodes, affecting everyone’s daily life and future.
The ANC cannot firmly declare its leadership succession plans across all spheres of government, except in the arguably stable provinces of Limpopo and the Northern Cape. The daggers that are out in its regions and provinces, including national ones, all point to a country losing the ability to shape a future independent of who takes it there.
The era of blaming one political party for the growing dysfunction of municipal government has passed. Despite the truth of which party is accused number one in the dock, all those who were part of the past coalitions are guilty as charged.
The ongoing leadership battles within political parties threaten to weaken the entire democratic order, risking further instability and undermining the prospects for effective, stable governance in South Africa.
The ANC cannot firmly declare its leadership succession plans across all spheres of government, except in the arguably stable provinces of Limpopo and the Northern Cape. The daggers that are out in its regions and provinces, including national ones, all point to a country losing the ability to shape a future independent of who takes it there.
The Democratic Alliance is also in a leadership contest. Arguably one of the few parties with better demographics at almost all its leadership levels, it is facing a moment of honesty about where it stands on social and economic justice for all. The demise of its leader and a potential truncation of youth ascendance within the DA will make it one of the cards in the house that are fragile.
Then there is the EFF, which is at risk of having its leader as a convicted felon following his real charges related to firearms control. Few, if any, legal minds, see the prospect of a not guilty verdict. Almost like an elephant running with a dart shot on its back and in a matter of time going to fall, the EFF leader seems to be destined for a guilty verdict. This is going to trigger one of the hottest contested succession battles. Only Malema’s genius, if he can muster the political stamina, can rescue the EFF as significant in the house of cards South Africa has become.
There is also the rise of the Buthelezi clan within the IFP, which might destabilise the political landscape in KwaZulu-Natal. The murmurings of a hot contest for leadership of the IFP will have far-reaching ramifications on South Africa’s largest identity-based, vote-laden constituency, the so-called Zulu vote. As part of the house’s structure, the upcoming wind might blow the edifice apart.
The 47% proven support of the MK Party in KZN and its third-largest party status nationally make it an emerging power broker in future elections, particularly where the local dimension is important. The MKP is an important card in the house. The staged ignorance of its influence will either expire in the municipal elections or prove to be a critical card to hold the house together. However, it too has vicious palace politics that remain under the patriarch’s control. Aside from its president’s health, it remains the riskiest card to hold when the wind blows.
There is the Freedom Front, which sits atop an identity constituency undergoing a consequential redefinition. There are no reported leadership succession challenges to weaken it as one of the cards. It is the contest over what it stands for among civil society movements that puts their strength to the test. Notwithstanding, it is a card in the fragile house.
In the House of Cards, several parties hold the structure together at the local government level. The multiple coalitions keeping local government together have interesting cards that hold the statewide system together.
As the winds of local government elections shake the house, it is the strength of the cards that will determine whether South Africa’s democracy can again stand firm in 2029, empowering citizens to shape their future.
“It is that time to ditch ideology” and return to the politics of reality. Pursuing politics of one dominant political party system will not work; it’s like fighting against a tide whose origins are natural. We need coalition-building specialists to lead the next phase of our unfolding democratic order. Governance in South Africa will not require an ideological monologue, but rather a dialogue.
Dr FM Lucky Mathebula: Founder of The Thinc Foundation, a think-tank based at the Da Vinci Institute
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