LUCKY MATHEBULA | We love our country, but not its government

Thirty years after South Africa’s democratic transition, the paradox of being a voter has sharpened. Citizens continue to love their country deeply, yet their trust in those who govern has eroded.

Voting, once an uncomplicated expression of loyalty to the liberation movement, has become a difficult balancing act between patriotism, identity and political dissatisfaction. With turnout now below half of eligible voters, many South Africans no longer believe elections will improve their lived realities.

Patriotism in South Africa has always been a layered construct. Without national conscription or other compulsory civic duties, it has drawn from cultural identity, political affiliation and personal experience of the state. For the African majority, and for the last 30 years, supporting the party of liberation has been widely treated as synonymous with loving the country. But the political shifts that began accelerating in 2016 created distance between citizens’ affection for South Africa and their trust in the liberation movement complex, which has governed since 1994.

The election cycles of 2016, 2021 and 2024 intensified this separation. These elections reshaped public evaluation of government performance and turned abstention into a political act. Many who stayed away from the polls did so not out of apathy but out of frustration over crime, corruption, state capture and persistent service delivery failures — these have undermined confidence in political leadership.

As a result, projections for 2026 estimate the ANC will receive less than 42% of the national vote. It will retain majority support in only Limpopo and the Eastern Cape. This signals not only a decline in dominance but also a fundamental reconfiguration of South Africa’s political centre.

South Africa has now entered an era in which voters prioritise their love for their country or municipality over loyalty to political organisations

Opposition to the ANC has also grown more complex. Julius Malema’s EFF represents a generational break from liberation-era youth politics, while the party formed by former president Jacob Zuma adds another layer of significant identity vote-driven fragmentation. Identity-driven parties, such as the Patriotic Alliance and Freedom Front Plus, continue to grow. Liberal parties struggle to consolidate influence due to divisions internal to the ideology. This crowded landscape has produced a competitive, if not chaotic, multiparty arena.

Yet beyond the political fray, social cohesion among ordinary South Africans remains notable. Since 1994, national symbols, sporting achievements and shared grievances have formed the backbone of collective identity. Even in the face of political dysfunction, crime and corruption, South Africans often find unity through common experiences of good, triumph and governmental neglect.

The 1996 constitution has been pivotal in sustaining this democratic resilience. If South Africans have learnt to live in a democracy, it is because the constitutional order enables evolution and adaptation. The voting patterns emerging since 2016 reflect democratic maturation rather than democratic decline. The constitution contains provisions for governance models that do not depend on dominant party rule. In many ways, the early government of national unity anticipated a future in which a once-dominant party would not sit forever at the centre of power.

South Africa has now entered an era in which voters prioritise their love for their country or municipality over loyalty to political organisations. Since 2016, the country has operated under multiple arrangements, including coalitions across municipalities and provinces. Many national departments and state institutions now operate under non-ANC or mixed political leadership. What was once an exception has become a recurring democratic feature.

Coalitions have brought turbulence. Some municipalities have experienced instability, leadership breakdowns and administrative paralysis. Yet this turbulence has produced an important democratic benefit: greater transparency. With no single party able to obscure internal weaknesses, governance — successful or failing — is increasingly visible to the public. This visibility strengthens accountability and forces political actors to justify their decisions.

Democratic transitions are rarely smooth. The process matters as much as the outcome. South Africa’s shift toward a stable multiparty system may, in time, correct the semi-authoritarian tendencies associated with dominant party rule. The absence of any party securing an outright majority could become a pathway towards a more balanced, inclusive democratic order.

At this moment, South Africans are demonstrating that it is possible to love one’s country without loving its government. Citizens continue to dream of a functional, safe and equitable nation, one that protects livelihoods and upholds constitutional ideals. Increasingly, they believe that patriotism requires demanding more from those who seek to govern. This belief may shape South Africa’s next political chapter more profoundly than party loyalty ever has.

• Mathebula is founder of The Thinc Foundation, a think-tank based at the Da Vinci Institute