BRUTUS MALADA | What will happen if Cyril Ramaphosa goes?

There is truth in the adage that politics is the art of the possible. This is accurate about South African politics; even more apt for our country is the “alive with possibilities” cliché. In South Africa, crisis remains a reliable and effective midwife of change, delivering rapid changes and boundless possibilities.

We are a nation on the verge of a constitutional crisis and on the cusp of sweeping changes that could alter the course of our politics.

This crisis is threatening the stability of the state. It is as much a question of law as it is ethics. This is a crisis of a president who stands accused of breaking the law, laundering foreign currency and hiding the loot in a couch.

It is alleged that President Cyril Ramaphosa abused his powers, privileges and influence to sweep the matter under the carpet in an attempt to conceal it from the public and evade the laws he swore to uphold, protect and defend.

How did we get here? We are here because the ANC used its majority in parliament in 2022 to circumvent the recommendations of the section 89 panel for an impeachment process to be instituted against the president.

The three-member panel chaired by judge Sandile Ngcobo found there was potential criminal conduct on Ramaphosa’s part and a case for him to answer with regard to the misuse of state resources and his inconsistent explanations. Unhappy with the decision of parliament, the EFF took the matter to the Constitutional Court.

Ramaphosa has been the glue that has held the GNU together. He is the last man standing in the ANC with political heft and a semblance of respectability. His departure would create instability in the government and uncertainty in society, and accelerate the demise of a dying ANC.

The court has been seized with this matter since November 2024, when the EFF argued before it that parliament’s decision was irrational, unlawful or procedurally flawed, The party said parliament had failed to apply its constitutional accountability mechanisms for the president.

The political ramifications that would follow if the Constitutional Court sets parliament’s decision aside cannot be underestimated. It would compel parliament to initiate a process for impeachment, though such a process would still require a parliamentary vote.

The question in many minds is: will Ramaphosa hang on to the presidency or will he walk away? To be found in breach of the oath of office is serious enought, but to be impeached could be even more embarrassing.

The Phala Phala scandal could still end Ramaphosa’s political career and result in an early leadership change or fresh election.

For a man who took office promising a new dawn, Ramaphosa has been hoist by his own petard. His reaction to the court’s judgment, if it goes against him, will be watched with keen interest. Choosing to ignore the pronouncements of the highest court in the land would be a betrayal of the spirit and the letter of the constitution that he helped to draft.

Hanging on to office despite an adverse judgment would be to spit in the face of the very role model he holds in high esteem; his most likely course of action would be to step down.

In that case, who would take over from him?

Ramaphosa has been the glue that has held the GNU together. He is the last man standing in the ANC with political heft and a semblance of respectability. His departure would create instability in the government and uncertainty in society, and accelerate the demise of a dying ANC.

Concomitant with his resignation would be the dissolution of the cabinet. The constitution stipulates that “not more than 30 days after the vacancy occurs” should parliament elect a president. The deputy president does not ascend automatically.

Déjà vu.

Of course, the memory of the removal of Thabo Mbeki as president in 2008 is still vivid, as is the Valentine’s Day gift 10 years later when Jacob Zuma resigned. However, this time the ANC would not be able to unilaterally install a replacement; there would have to be negotiations with other parties in parliament.

There are various possible scenarios.

If the ANC asks Ramaphosa to step aside pending a disciplinary process for bringing the party into disrepute, he might go through with the process in the hopes of clearing his name, or he might simply quit politics.

Far-fetched as it might seem, a minority national government formed by either the ANC or the DA remains a possibility, though this would be prone to the kind of instability we have witnessed in such metros as Johannesburg, where coalitions change mayors as frequently as they change their socks

The ANC would be likely to push for Paul Mashatile to take over as head of state. Would the other political parties, especially the DA, agree to this, given the dark clouds over Mashatile’s head, and could the ANC form a government without the DA?

It could do so if it threw in its lot with the MK Party and the EFF, resulting in the DA’s biggest nightmare, a “doomsday coalition”. The DA would face a choice between this outcome and burying its misgivings about Mashatile. However, if the DA did accept Mashatile, it could negotiate for its newly elected leader, Geordin Hill-Lewis, 39, to be deputy president.

The same goes for the MKP and the EFF in any coalition talks with the ANC — to keep everyone happy, we could even end up with two deputy presidents, John Hlophe and Julius Malema. Or Zuma might push his sone Duduzane into the post ahead of Hlophe.

These scenarios represent Mashatile’s only avenue to becoming president. There is no guarantee that the ANC will be in a position to name the country’s president after the 2029 elections. It is exactly for this reason that Mashatile would be anxious to get in now.

Far-fetched as it might seem, a minority national government formed by either the ANC or the DA remains a possibility, though this would be prone to the kind of instability we have witnessed in such metros as Johannesburg, where coalitions change mayors as frequently as they change their socks.

Another scenario is that the parties in parliament deadlock and are unable to form a government. Under the constitution, this would trigger an early election.

Of course, this speculation will all be moot if the Constitutional Court rejects the EFF’s arguments and upholds parliament’s original decision.

But as we wait for the Phala Phala ruling to be handed down, we should perhaps ponder the possibility of a Mashatile presidency. Only in a land alive with possibilities would the potential deputy presidents include a middle-aged white man, a convicted criminal and an impeached judge.

• Malada is a political strategist and a PhD candidate in the department of political studies at the University of Johannesburg. He hosts The Brutally Honest Show on YouTube.