MCEBISI JONAS | How aiding farmers helps us manage global risks

Agriculture is affected by weather, input prices, exchange rates, animal disease, water availability, ports, electricity, trade rules, and the strength of the domestic consumer. It is also connected to a wider global environment that has become more volatile.

The war in the Gulf has disrupted energy markets, increased uncertainty around shipping routes and fertiliser supplies, and deepened the already fragile global economic outlook. Even if the most intense phase of the conflict were to pass, the consequences would not disappear quickly.

The emerging global trade and financial architecture is not cyclical. The orderly, rules-based system is unlikely to return, and the disruption of the global economy is likely to continue beyond the cessation of hostilities.

For agriculture, these are not abstract geopolitical events. When the Strait of Hormuz becomes unsafe or unreliable, the shock is transmitted to farm balance sheets and household budgets. It is no longer possible to assume that food, fuel, fertiliser, capital and shipping will remain available at stable prices.

With globalisation being rewired, trade is becoming more politicised, and supply chains are being disrupted. Technology is changing fast, and access and choices are being contested. Financial flows continue, but their political character is being shaped by sanctions, currency politics and strategic alignments.

The result is a more fragmented world economy. Economic and trade relationships increasingly carry strategic meaning. Food, energy, critical minerals, data, logistics and finance are no longer treated as ordinary commercial matters. They are now part of national security, industrial policy and foreign policy.

In other words, they are the subject of statecraft. Agriculture is directly affected by this shift.

We must continue pressing China for this and ensure that we meet technical requirements on our side. Political visits and summit declarations do not move containers

Food security requires that the state understands our vulnerabilities and acts to reduce exposure. We depend on imported inputs, especially fertiliser, fuel, machinery and some animal-feed components. We also need functioning ports and transport corridors. Effective water systems, as well as capable veterinary and phytosanitary systems, are necessary. Electricity, finance, insurance, research and extension are a given.

Each of these is grounded in technical excellence and world-class skills that South Africa undoubtedly has. But statecraft is not simply about the creation of competent technical bureaus. Agriculture depends on a stable social compact that allows farming to grow while widening participation in the sector. This requires a solid political centre able to mobilise society behind a clear vision of change. Strategic coherence is needed to open markets and build new political and commercial relationships.

South African agriculture has competitive producers, sophisticated agribusinesses, strong links to financial institutions, globally recognised export products, and a record of adapting to difficult conditions. The country also has significant food-processing firms and agribusiness capabilities that can anchor wider value-chain development.

Agriculture has continued to perform well even as the external environment has become more difficult. Farm exports reached a record level in 2025, and the sector recorded a large trade surplus. Agriculture earns foreign exchange, sustains rural employment, and connects South Africa to the world.

These strengths have often been achieved despite weak public systems rather than because of them. That is not a sustainable model. Private resilience can compensate for public weakness for a time, but it cannot substitute for a capable state or an effective political centre.

A more volatile world places a premium on co-ordination between the state and private capital. Trade access, disease control, water infrastructure, rail and port performance, market diversification and climate adaptation all require government action. Private-sector participation within regulation is needed — neither side can manage the risks alone

South Africa needs a more deliberate approach to agricultural trade. Africa remains the largest market for South African agricultural exports. Asia and the Middle East are becoming more important, and Europe remains central for high-value products. The Americas are important for particular products and firms. To build on these strengths, a concerted effort at trade diversification is required.

This brings us to South Africa’s international posture and trade strategy.

Our foreign policy cannot be separated from our development strategy. The country needs faster growth, higher investment, more employment and a more resilient economy. Foreign policy should be judged by whether it contributes to these objectives.

At the same time, foreign policy cannot be reduced to commercial calculation. Our commitment to democracy and human rights at home should inform our advocacy for those principles abroad. The challenge is to hold together these two dimensions: values, interests and principles on one hand, and the pursuit of national development on the other. South Africa cannot succeed without that balance.

This is why the idea of South Africa as a middle power is useful. It recognises that we are not a superpower, but neither are we a passive bystander.

Transformation remains essential; redistribution and restitution still matter, but the ultimate test is not about moral victories or political posturing. It is about whether these interventions create viable livelihoods, more sustainable rural incomes and a basis for new production

We must take full advantage of groupings and economic communities such as Brics, to ensure our membership produces practical economic gains: trade, market access, investment and technology. For agriculture, this means asking whether Brics relationships can help South African producers sell more, process more and invest more in a framework of mutual benefit and respect.

While strengthening trade relations with our traditional partners in Europe and the US, we should also focus on expanding exports to Asia and the Middle East. China should be a priority. It is one of the largest agricultural importers in the world, but South Africa’s share of that market remains very small. We can offset the large trade deficit with China on manufactured goods through exports of agricultural and food products. Recent movement under the China-Africa economic partnership framework creates a window for improved access.

We must continue pressing China for this and ensure that we meet technical requirements on our side. Political visits and summit declarations do not move containers. The follow-through must be done by officials, regulators, exporters, logistics firms and industry bodies. We must strengthen our technical capacity to turn political engagements into protocols, certificates, lower tariffs, and easing of non-tariff barriers.

The new global environment has strengthened the need for regional integration and a regional growth strategy. While South Africa is a small market on the global stage, it is pivotal to the regional economy. We produce more than half the region’s income. We have deep financial markets and strong private capital, which give us immense demographic pull in a region where fragility is the norm.

In South Africa, agricultural growth will not be durable if it is socially narrow. Transformation remains essential; redistribution and restitution still matter, but the ultimate test is not about moral victories or political posturing. It is about whether these interventions create viable livelihoods, more sustainable rural incomes and a basis for new production.

Agriculture is not peripheral to questions of national and regional strategy and security. Building a more competitive, inclusive and resilient agricultural economy will strengthen the foundations of growth and improve our capacity to absorb shocks.

The present moment is a stark warning of the risks we face. South Africa must trade more, not less. We must attract investment, build partnerships across regions and seek to expand into new markets. All of this should be underpinned by stronger alignment between the state, agriculture, communities, academia and financial capital.

That is the anchor of a national vision.

• Jonas is President Cyril Ramaphosa’s special envoy and chair of MTN