KUSENI DLAMINI | The 21st century calls for a US-SA reset based on intelligence economy

As the US celebrated the 250th anniversary of its independence from Britain last weekend, the most important question facing the country and South Africa is not whether their bilateral relationship has experienced strain. It has.

It is also not whether the relationship is improving since the arrival of ambassador Leo Brent Bozel III in Pretoria and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s shrewd appointment of ambassador designate Roelf Meyer as South Africa’s point man in Washington DC. It is.

Nor is the question whether the two countries disagree on aspects of current geopolitics. They do.

The real question, it seems to me, is whether Washington and Pretoria understand that they are living through the largest reordering of global economic and geopolitical power since the end of World War 2 — and whether they are prepared to act accordingly.

This question was twice brought into sharp focus for me in recent months:

• The first was in Silicon Valley, where I attended Jensen Huang’s keynote address at Nvidia’s GTC conference earlier this year.
• The second was in Pretoria on July 1, during the commemoration of the 250th anniversary of American independence hosted by Bozell, where former president Thabo Mbeki delivered a compelling argument for the strategic importance of the US-South Africa relationship.

At first glance, these events appear unrelated. They are not.

The central geopolitical reality of the 21st century is that economics, technology and national security have converged. Artificial intelligence is no longer simply a technological phenomenon. It is becoming the principal determinant of economic competitiveness, military capability and geopolitical influence.

The central geopolitical reality of the 21st century is that economics, technology and national security have converged

This changes everything. The 20th century was defined by competition for territory, industrial capacity and energy resources. The 21st century will be defined by competition for computational power, advanced semiconductors, critical minerals, electricity generation and AI ecosystems.

In other words, geopolitics is becoming a contest over intelligence itself. The implications are profound.

The US has correctly identified AI leadership as a national strategic priority. China has done the same, but with characteristic speed, scale and strategic coherence.

Beijing’s ambition is not simply to compete with the US in AI. It is to construct an alternative global technological ecosystem, spanning semiconductors, digital infrastructure, manufacturing, finance, logistics and strategic minerals.

This is not merely an economic competition. It is a contest to determine which political, technological and economic model will shape the global order for the next half-century and beyond.

Yet, remarkably, much of the discussion about US-South Africa relations remains trapped in the assumptions of a previous era.

In Washington, South Africa is too often viewed primarily through the prism of diplomatic disagreements, voting patterns at the UN, or debates over Agoa (African Growth and Opportunity Act) eligibility.

In Pretoria, the US is too often viewed through the lens of strategic autonomy, historical grievance or the assumption that economic relationships can remain insulated from geopolitical realities.

Both perspectives, in my view, are increasingly untenable. Why?

The world has entered an age of strategic blocs, technological spheres of influence and industrial competition. Countries that fail to recognise this reality risk discovering that strategic ambiguity is often indistinguishable from strategic irrelevance. This is why the future of Agoa, important though it remains, is ultimately the wrong debate.

The relevant question for US policymakers is therefore not whether South Africa deserves preferential trade access. It does. The relevant question is whether the US can realistically pursue its economic and strategic ambitions in Africa without a deep strategic partnership with Africa’s most industrialised economy, largest institutional investment market and one of the world’s most important repositories of strategic minerals.

History offers us a cautionary lesson. Countries that export raw materials rarely become wealthy. But countries that participate in technological ecosystems often do.

Similarly, the question for South African policymakers is not whether the country should choose between Washington and Beijing. It is whether South Africa intends to become a participant in the intelligence economy or merely a supplier of inputs to economies that do. This distinction matters enormously.

South Africa possesses many of the resources that will underpin the AI age: platinum group metals, manganese, vanadium, chromium, rare earth potential, renewable energy capacity, industrial infrastructure, deep capital markets and sophisticated, well-governed financial institutions.

But history offers us a cautionary lesson. Countries that export raw materials rarely become wealthy. But countries that participate in technological ecosystems often do.

The strategic challenge for South Africa is therefore not simply to mine critical minerals. It is to secure a position within the emerging architecture of AI itself: AI factories, data centres, computational infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, energy systems, digital skills and sovereign technological capabilities.

This presents an extraordinary opportunity for a renewed strategic partnership with the US. America remains the world’s pre-eminent centre of technological innovation, venture capital formation, advanced semiconductor design and AI research.

South Africa remains Africa’s most capable and credible industrial and financial platform. The combination can be transformative.

Yet there is also a darker possibility. If Washington misreads South Africa as strategically expendable, it risks accelerating the expansion of Chinese technological, industrial and financial influence across the African continent at precisely the moment when global technological competition is intensifying.

If Pretoria misreads the scale of geopolitical change, it risks finding itself marginalised in the most important economic transformation since the industrial revolution.

The strategic risks of inaction are therefore substantial for both countries.

Encouragingly, recent developments suggest that both governments understand that a reset is necessary.

The next phase of the US-South Africa relationship cannot be based on nostalgia, aid dependency or residual Cold War ideological cleavages and assumptions

President Ramaphosa’s address to the American Chamber of Commerce South Africa in April represented one of the strongest endorsements of the strategic importance of the US-South Africa relationship delivered by a South African president in recent memory.

Ambassador Bozell has demonstrated a welcome commitment to restoring strategic dialogue and rebuilding trust.

Ramaphosa’s commendable appointment of Meyer as South Africa’s ambassador to Washington is equally significant. Few South Africans better understand that durable political settlements are built not through ideological purity but through strategic pragmatism and the willingness to compromise for the greater good.

But diplomacy alone, in my humble opinion, while very critical, will not be enough. The next phase of the US-South Africa relationship cannot be based on nostalgia, aid dependency or residual Cold War ideological cleavages and assumptions. It must, in my view, be built on a hard-headed and hard-nosed recognition of mutual strategic interest.

That means moving beyond Agoa towards a broader economic compact between Washington and Pretoria centred on AI infrastructure, critical-mineral beneficiation, energy security, semiconductor supply chains, advanced manufacturing and technological capabilities.

It means recognising that the intelligence economy will create new winners and new losers, new haves and new have-nots — and that countries which fail to build strategic partnerships now may find themselves and their citizens locked out of the next era of prosperity and progress.

Above all, it means understanding a simple truth. The competition between the US and China is not a future event. It is already reshaping the global economy.

The AI revolution is not a future possibility. It is already redistributing geopolitical power.

Therefore the question facing both Washington and Pretoria is not whether they can preserve the world that is disappearing. It is whether they have the strategic imagination and intent to build the world that is emerging.

• Dlamini, the chair of Alexforbes and Aspen Pharmacare, is president of the American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa and deputy chair of the South African Institute of International Affairs. He writes in his personal capacity