US author Mark Twain famously responded to an incorrect report that he had died with the words: "Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
Could this apply to SA's malls, which some have predicted could become white elephants thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic accelerating online retail?
Judging from the results of two property companies this week, these predictions appear premature.
In its half-year results to September 30, Vukile reported foot traffic in its local malls had recovered to 86% of what it was this time last year. Redefine Properties, reporting results for the year ended August 31, said foot traffic in October was 90% of last year's.
Vukile CEO Laurence Rapp says while South African shopping centres may change to incorporate a more "omni-channel approach" in which people choose a combination of online and physical shopping, malls are not going anywhere.
Rapp, referring to a famous 1998 Time magazine cover that predicted the imminent death of the mall, says that 22 years later the "mall is still very much alive". If SA's malls were dying, companies like Vukile wouldn't be seeing any recoveries in foot traffic since lockdown restrictions eased.
While Rapp says part of the reason for the group's solid recovery is its exposure to shopping centres that serve rural areas, townships and key transport nodes, he believes that over time even larger regional malls, which have been hardest hit by the pandemic as consumers choose to shop closer to home, will recover.
Some of Vukile's shopping centres include the East Rand Mall in Boksburg, Dobsonville Mall in Soweto, Mdantsane City in East London and Pine Crest and Phoenix Plaza, both in Durban.
Redefine, which owns shopping centres such as Centurion Mall, Kyalami Corner and Maponya Mall in Soweto, says it is also seeing a strong recovery after the hard lockdown resulted in the foot count dropping as low as 37% in April.
"As we sit now, for October, we are at 90% of pre-Covid levels, comparing against the same month last year," says Redefine CEO Andrew Konig.
He says online delivery channels in SA do not work as seamlessly as expected so there is still an important role for shopping centres.
"You can shop for clothes online but to be honest, the online delivery is not as efficient as one would expect and people still want to try on clothing and feel the clothing they are going to be wearing. So the shopping centre is by no means dead."
Konig says online retail sales figures in SA, which range from 2% to 4% of total sales depending on how one measures them, are still low compared to the rest of the world.
Stanlib's head of listed property funds, Keillen Ndlovu, agrees, saying that while online shopping will continue to grow, this will mostly be in higher-income markets and isn't expected to reach the "double-digit levels like the UK and US".
"Most of our population is not able to shop online."
University of Cape Town professor and property economist François Viruly also believes there is still a place for shopping malls in SA's future, but adds: "It would be naïve to argue that the world is going to stop with the shopping centre.
"If you think about it, we started with marketplaces, from marketplaces we went to department stores, and from department stores we went to shopping centres. All of this was influenced by movement."
Viruly says the widespread use of the car acted as the catalyst for shopping centres, replacing the old-fashioned department store concept as people were able to travel a distance to a shopping destination.
He believes, though, that what the "car did for the department store, the internet could do to the shopping centre".
"The common factor is still movement and how we access goods and services."
Viruly says SA will still have malls in the future but their function will change.
"For instance, who says you can only have shops in a shopping centre? Our shopping centres could become the new high streets . they will have different uses attached to them, maybe even some residential."
Viruly says the question now as shopping centres move from "bricks and mortar to clicks and mortar" is how to integrate "the last mile of e-retailing into the shopping centre. We are going to rely on omni-channel retailing where the client will say: 'I will let you know how I want to interact with you. Maybe I will buy it online, maybe I will pay you a visit, maybe I will buy online and pick it up from your store.'
"I think the shopping centre will have a role but I think the consumer will be using different channels."
Ndlovu says the retail property sector will change to a more mixed-use and multipurpose format that will "require some creativity from landlords".
He says smaller centres such as neighbourhood and community shopping centres, including those in townships and rural areas, "continue to do better than the bigger regional shopping centres". The regional malls are generally located in office nodes and have been affected by people working from home during the pandemic.
