It was a week in which the official statistics confirmed that SA's economy shrank by a horrifying 7% last year, with agriculture and net exports among the only bright spots. It was also a week in which Proudly SA held a big "Buy SA" summit at which trade, industry & competition minister Ebrahim Patel spoke of growing manufacturing by buying local, in line with ambitions to cut imports by 20%, as outlined in President Cyril Ramaphosa's economic recovery plan. "Industrial revival is at the heart of our efforts to reignite economic growth," said Patel.
The juxtaposition made it one of those moments to wonder how often the focus is on the economy some wish we could have, rather than the one we actually have.
True, manufacturing did bounce back in the fourth quarter, contributing to the recovery. Overall, the recovery in the second half of last year turned out to be more robust than many economists had expected in the depths of last year's lockdown, when some forecasts saw the economy shrinking by as much as 10% or more for the year. But SA also quite simply lucked out - first thanks to the weather, second thanks to global commodity prices.
The weather angels helped agriculture expand by 13.1% last year, making it the only sector (other than the government) to record any growth for the year. The commodity price boom, which upped the prices of some of SA's key exports at a time when the oil price was lockdown low, contributed a "terms of trade" kicker to exports and growth, even though mining output showed a decline for the year.
All of which raises the question of what SA should be doing to lock in longer-term growth from export-oriented sectors, which have done well by us in tough times but are too often unloved by policymakers.
Agriculture directly makes up hardly more than 1% of GDP but agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo estimates its contribution is closer to 10% if its indirect impacts are included. It's often a big swing factor in the GDP figures when rains are either very bad or very good. It's one of the economy's more labour-intensive sectors, accounting for over 5% of employment. It's also one of its more successful exporters - SA is a net exporter, exporting just over half of the value of what its farms produce, with our fruit and veg going to Africa, Europe, Asia and other markets. Last year agricultural exports were up 3% in dollar terms to $10.2bn (about R153bn) , the second highest on record.
Sihlobo insists agriculture and agro-processing do feature on Patel's radar. But with messaging that's all about manufacturing and "Buy SA", you could be forgiven for thinking that expanding commercial farming isn't that high on the list. Nor are farmers necessarily confident of its longer-term prospects, with the statistics showing fixed investment in agriculture has been in decline for the past four years.
Policy issues are a constraint; so are logistics on rail and at the ports. The same goes for SA's mining sector, which was constrained by policy and logistical and infrastructure challenges in the last commodities boom and continues to be in this one. One thing agriculture and mining have in common is the long-term nature of the game, making a predictable environment essential. They are also areas where SA has a comparative advantage in new-generation industries, be they "superfoods" such as avos, or the platinum used in the hydrogen fuel cells that could power the trucks and trains of the future.
SA surely needs to leverage sectors that can provide it with the investment and exports it desperately needs to drive growth and job creation in the longer term. The GDP figures drive that home, yet again, more so because the recovery is expected to be among the weakest among emerging markets, according to Moody's, with SA going back to its usual 1% range after a bounce this year. It's not a pretty picture.
• Joffe is contributing editor
