When the embattled Ster-Kinekor cinema chain last weekend requested an extension for the publication of its business rescue plan, it had to use verbal gymnastics to imply a recovery that may not arrive.
The application came three months after the company entered voluntary business rescue, but the moment the business crashed can be placed precisely: when President Cyril Ramaphosa declared a state of disaster on March 15 2020, and banned gatherings of more than 100 people to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
In the days following the announcement, both Nu Metro and Ster-Kinekor cinemas introduced a buffer of two seats between patrons, effectively reducing their capacity to a third.
They also stopped screening movies after 6pm - making a further dramatic cut in potential capacity.
The impact was felt immediately, according to the National Film and Video Foundation (NFVF), which has conducted research into the film and video industry for several decades.
I’m very bullish on
— Christopher Nolan,
the long-term prospects of the industry. People love going to the movies
and they’re going to get to go again
British-American film director, producer and screenwriter
Last year, in its analysis of the first quarter of 2020, it reported box office revenue for the month of March as R10.5m - plummeting from R110.7m for the same month in 2019.
"In 2020 we saw many films planned for release being rescheduled for 2021, while others were released on SVOD/VOD [streaming video on demand/video on demand] platforms," it said.
"Moffie, Griekwastad, Seriously Single, Toorbos, Riding with Sugar, The Tree and New Material are some of the films that were scheduled to be released in 2020."
Ster-Kinekor theatres ushered out their last guests on March 27, reopening again only on August 28, with Christopher Nolan's Tenet.
By the end of the year, according to the NFVF's recently released "Box Office Report SA 2020", the devastation of the industry was complete.
Annual revenues had fallen from R1.225bn to R214m, effectively ripping the heart out of the industry.
Four weeks into 2021, Ster-Kinekor went into business rescue, but is still unable to plot a way forward.
In announcing its request for an extension, it said "the business is starting to make progress in recovering positively and whilst attendances are still currently significantly lower than for the same period prior to Covid-19, the trajectory towards a 'new' normalised level does appear to be positive".
Whether this anticipated new level will represent sufficient business activity is, however, a matter of hope rather than expectation.
Everything appears to hinge on coming box office sensations at a time when audiences are not inclined to go near the box office.
Even the slate of coming films released last month appears somewhat ominous, with titles like A Quiet Place 2, the Bond movie No Time to Die and Mission Impossible 7 a little too close to home.
"Attendances have risen firstly with the relaxation of restrictions but more so when new content has been released," Ster-Kinekor said this week, referencing the movie Godzilla vs Kong.
However, the film industry itself has been in slow motion, evidenced by numerous sequels, and both Ster-Kinekor and Nu Metro will be hoping that the title of one of these, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, will better represent the fortunes of the industry.
The major studios are not enthusiastic about throwing a lifeline to theatres.
In December, Warner Bros announced that its entire 2021 theatrical film slate, including Dune, Matrix 4 and Godzilla vs Kong, would debut simultaneously on the US streaming service HBO Max. In SA, HBO content is screened by Showmax.
Nolan, who failed to reignite the box office with Tenet, told the CBS show Entertainment Tonight at the time that Warner Bros was using big-screen experiences "as a loss-leader for the streaming service".
"Long term, I think all of the studios know that the movie theatre experience will bounce back and be a very important part of the ecosystem," he said.
"What you have right now in our business is a lot of the use of the pandemic as an excuse for sort of grappling for short-term advantage.
"It's not the way to do business and it's not the best thing for the health of our industry.
"But when the theatres are back and people are going back to the movies, when the vaccine has been rolled out and there's an appropriate health response from the [US] federal government, I'm very bullish on the long-term prospects of the industry.
"People love going to the movies and they're going to get to go again."
Ster-Kinekor, for one, is counting on Nolan being correct.
"The clarity we now have on the scheduled releases to December provide us with the ability to better forecast the trajectory of the business, which is a key underpin to the development of a plan," it said in its letter to creditors requesting an extension to the business rescue process.
"We are actively engaged with our many strategic, long-term partners in determining how to restructure and reposition the business for success."
Ster-Kinekor's major rival, Nu Metro, has said it is in good financial standing, but it is also pinning its hopes on blockbusters. Meanwhile, it has turned to alternative content, like live concerts streamed into cinemas.
The NFVF was not optimistic: "The restrictions were eased towards the end of August, enabling cinemas to reopen as long as they implemented new health and safety guidelines, including reduced seating capacity in most cinemas to comply with social distancing measures.
"However, that did not result in more revenues as the restrictions only permitted a limited number of people at cinemas. The economy has not recovered, as the lockdown regulations are still in place."
SA cinema’s box office
revenue in March 2020,
plummeting from
R110.7m in 2019
— R10.5m
Despite this, the top-grossing film of 2020, Bad Boys for Life, an action comedy, earned more than R51.5m at the box office, which would have put it in fifth place in 2019, ahead of Captain Marvel and Aladdin.
"The film did exceptionally well, given the crisis that we are faced with globally," said the NFVF.
However, the second-highest earner, animated movie The Croods: A New Age, earned a mere R12.5m, which would not have made the top 20 in the previous year.
During the five years prior to the pandemic, the South African box office never took in less than R1.1bn a year.
But even then, it was struggling in the face of the streaming video boom. Another sub-R500m year could speed the demise of the movie house in this country.
