People who are not power system geeks might be wondering why the fuss about a somewhat technical reform that exempts some large power projects from the need to obtain licences - as this week's gazette allowing private sector "embedded generation" projects up to 100MW does.
One answer is that this is a reform that ticks so many boxes. Most topical of the boxes is climate change. Even if anyone were still willing to invest in coal, the technology has developed so fast that wind and solar are cheaper, quicker and more viable options.
Those local private sector companies seeking to generate power for their own use will mostly be investing in renewable energy, not only because they are under increasing pressure to decarbonise their operations, but also because renewables are a better bet. And while the government's own renewable energy independent power producer programme is starting up again, after a long delay, self-generation has the potential to bring green energy capacity onto the grid faster, with less bureaucracy and cost to the taxpayer.
Which brings us to the second, even more immediate box, which is energy security, not just for the businesses seeking to generate their own power but for the economy more broadly. At latest count, Eskom's energy availability factor had sunk to less than two-thirds of its installed capacity. The more maintenance it does, the worse its power stations seem to perform.
Unreliable electricity is one of the biggest constraints on SA's economic growth and on its ability to attract investment. Estimates are the supply gap will persist for another few years at least, with load-shedding a risk for some time to come. Big businesses have been begging to be allowed to generate their own electricity at scale, without the cumbersome process of applying for licences, and several have projects almost ready to go. Eskom wants that too. It won't be instant, but this week's reform could see at least some of that power gap plugged within 18-24 months.
That would stimulate investment directly and indirectly, which is the third box. There's huge private sector appetite to invest in these kinds of private "green" projects and quantities of money waiting to go into self-generation, some of which would be foreign direct investment into SA.
In turn, a sustained pipeline of those projects could stimulate investment into manufacturing and services to support them. And, crucially, at a macro level, to the extent that self-generation could bring about greater energy security, it would enable the investment needed to support higher rates of economic growth and job creation.
All these boxes make embedded generation one of the signature structural economic reforms that President Cyril Ramaphosa can deliver. Indeed, so far it's the only big one he has delivered. But it's taken much time and trouble, and it's by no means done yet.
The legislative amendment published this week is so poorly drafted that it's likely to keep energy industry players and their lawyers busy with interpretation for some time. Will the new private-generation projects be limited to supplying just one end user, or can they supply more - as industry players insist they must if the programme is to attract investment at scale, and provide energy security for smaller power users? Will the projects be able to supply municipalities?
It's all a bit murky and uncertain, which is not good. These are projects to which investors will have to commit, typically, for 20-25 years. They are not going to do that based on uncertain rules of the game.
One would have thought this was so important, and such a potentially big change in SA's power system, that the department of minerals & energy would have delivered a sounder product - that it hasn't reflects on the poor state of government departments that are key to delivering the reforms that are supposed to address SA's low growth and job creation rates.
Whether this particular reform will work in the best possible way depends too on the national energy regulator. The regulator, which still has to register projects, if not license them, as well as facilitate transporting that power over the grid, could yet impose bureaucratic hurdles via the back door. So while the amendment gazetted this week is a big step forward on the road to reform, we're at the beginning, not the end.
• Joffe is contributing editor






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