When the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, the global economy looked a lot different: Tesla wasn't a company, the iPhone didn't exist and artificial intelligence was best known as a Steven Spielberg film.
Now all three are at the cutting edge of a modern economy driven by advancements in hi-tech chips and large-capacity batteries that are made with a range of minerals, including rare earths. And Afghanistan is sitting on deposits estimated to be worth $1- trillion (about R15-trillion), including what may be the world's largest lithium reserves - if anyone can get them out of the ground.
Four decades of war prevented that from happening. That's not expected to change any time soon, with the Taliban already showing signs they want to reimpose a theocracy that curbs women's rights and other basic freedoms rather than lead Afghanistan to a prosperous future.
But there's also an optimistic outlook, being pushed by Beijing, that goes like this: the Taliban forms an "inclusive" government with warlords of competing ethnic groups, allows a minimal level of basic human rights for women and minorities, and fights terrorist elements that want to strike the US, China, India or any other country.
"With the US withdrawal, Beijing can offer what Kabul needs most: political impartiality and economic investment," Zhou Bo, a senior colonel in the People's Liberation Army from 2003 to 2020, wrote in an op-ed in the New York Times. "Afghanistan in turn has what China most prizes: opportunities in infrastructure and industry building - areas in which China's capabilities are arguably unmatched - and access to $1-trillion in untapped mineral deposits."
For that scenario to be even a remote possibility, much depends on what happens in the next few weeks. Although the US is racing to evacuate thousands of Americans and vulnerable Afghans after a rushed troop withdrawal ending 20 years of war, US President Joe Biden still has the power to isolate any new Taliban government and stop most companies from operating in the country.
In a statement this week, the Group of Seven nations said the legitimacy of any Afghan government hinges on its adherence to international obligations including ensuring human rights for women and minorities.
The US maintains sanctions on the Taliban, and it can veto moves by China and Russia to ease UN Security Council restrictions on the militant group. Washington has already frozen nearly $9.5bn in Afghanistan's reserves and the International Monetary Fund has cut off financing for Afghanistan, including nearly $500m due to be disbursed when the Taliban took control.
To have hope of accessing those funds, it will be crucial for the Taliban to facilitate a smooth evacuation of foreigners and vulnerable Afghans, negotiate with warlords to prevent another civil war and halt human-rights abuses. Already tensions are growing over an August 31 deadline for troops to withdraw, with the Taliban warning the US not to cross its so-called "red line".
Still, the Taliban has reasons to exercise restraint. Kabul faces a growing economic crisis, with prices of staples such as flour and oil surging, pharmacies running short on drugs and ATMs depleted of cash. The militant group this week appointed a new central bank chief to address those problems, just as his exiled predecessor warned of shocks that could lead to a weaker currency, faster inflation and capital controls.
The Taliban want sanctions lifted and have said they want good international relations, particularly with China. A Taliban spokesman tweeted that a senior official met the Chinese ambassador in Kabul and "discussed the security of the Chinese embassy and diplomats, the current situation in Afghanistan, bilateral relations and China's humanitarian assistance".
Officials and state-run media in Beijing have softened the ground for closer ties, with the Communist Party-backed Global Times reporting that Chinese investment is likely to be "widely accepted" in Afghanistan. Another report argued that "the US is in no position to meddle with any potential co-operation between China and Afghanistan, including on rare earths".
For China, Afghanistan holds economic and strategic value. Leaders in Beijing have repeatedly called on the Taliban to prevent terrorists from plotting attacks against China, and view strong economic ties as key to stability. They also see an opportunity to invest in the country's mineral sector, the products of which can be transported on Chinese-financed infrastructure that includes about $60bn of projects in neighbouring Pakistan.
US officials estimated in 2010 that Afghanistan had $1-trillion of unexplored mineral deposits. The Afghan government has said they're worth three times as much. This includes vast reserves of lithium, rare earths and copper - materials critical to the global green-energy transition. But poor infrastructure and security have hampered efforts to mine and profit off the reserves.
The Taliban takeover comes at a critical time for the battery-materials supply chain. Producers are looking to invest in more upstream assets to secure the lithium supply ahead of what has been called a "perpetual deficit". The US, Japan and Europe have been seeking to cut their dependence on China for rare earths, which are used in items such as permanent magnets, though the moves are expected to take years and require millions of dollars of government support.
One major problem for the Taliban is a lack of skilled policymakers, according to Nematullah Bizhan, a former economic adviser to the finance ministry.
"In the past they appointed unqualified people into key specialised positions, such as the finance ministry and central bank," said Bizhan, now a lecturer in public policy at the Australian National University. "If they do the same, that will have negative implications for the economy and for growth."
Officially, Afghanistan's economy has seen rapid growth in recent years as billions in aid flooded the country. But that expansion has fluctuated with donor assistance, showing "how artificial and thus unsustainable the growth has been", according to a recent report from the US special inspector-general for Afghanistan reconstruction.
The Taliban is trying to show the world it has changed from its oppressive rule in the 1990s, saying it welcomes foreign investment from all countries and won't allow terrorists to use Afghanistan as a base.
But not many are optimistic. Reports have emerged of targeted killings, a massacre of ethnic minorities, violent suppression of protests and Taliban soldiers demanding to marry local women.
"Everyone's just in crisis mode," said Sarah Wahedi, a tech entrepreneur from Afghanistan who recently fled the country. "I don't see the entrepreneurs getting back to business unless there's a huge overhaul in the Taliban's behaviour. And there's nothing I've seen that makes me think that's going to happen."
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.