It’s December in Europe and the temperature is dropping. People have the heating on as they cook dinner, run the washing machine, watch TV. But in France, the grid operator is running out of options to keep the lights on.
The utility has issued a “red” alert, meaning supplies are at their limit. It’s already cut off some big industrial users and reduced voltage, and even sent out a mass request to households to curb their electricity usage.
Many comply but it’s crunch time. The operator needs to take the drastic step of shutting down power in some places to avoid a total collapse of the system.
It’s a scenario governments across Europe are preparing for as the energy squeeze that’s gripped the continent worsens each week.
On Wednesday, France’s Reseau de Transport d’Électricité said it will probably have to ask the country to cut consumption several times in winter to avoid rolling blackouts. Finland also ramped up warnings about outages.
The heightened alert follows Russia's move to halt gas supplies through the key Nord Stream pipeline, further raising the prospect of a shortage of gas to heat homes and generate electricity.
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reduced flows to Europe this year in retaliation for sanctions imposed after his country’s invasion of Ukraine.
“There is not enough gas in Europe,” said Ed Birkett, head of energy and climate at Onward, a London-based think-tank. “If demand isn’t reduced, businesses will be forced off the grid, and in an extreme scenario households could be forced off the grid.”
There are plenty of recent precedents. Texas’s grid went down last year in during cold weather, leaving millions without power for days. California came close to collapse in the extreme heat last summer.
SA is no stranger to rolling blackouts, largely due to years of underinvestment and maintenance neglect.
For Europe, much will hinge on the weather in the coming months. Small swings in temperature can radically change power needs.
On Wednesday, the European Commission proposed a regulation calling on governments to cut overall electricity usage by 10%, as well as a 5% mandatory reduction during peak hours.
But some governments said measures may add to the woes. Price caps aimed at helping consumers and businesses cope with soaring prices reduce incentives to lower consumption.
Other factors are also at play. France, traditionally Europe’s largest electricity exporter, may have to import large amounts of power this winter as Électricité de France grapples with the reduced reliability of its ageing nuclear fleet.
A dry summer has affected hydro power across Europe.
If the crisis escalates, cutting power to homes is a last resort, and there are a range of options that authorities will take first.
Governments have already recommended turning down thermostats and taking shorter showers, and are reducing their own consumption by lowering temperatures in public pools and turning off outside lighting on public buildings at night.
The next step is for large energy-intensive companies to reduce usage or shut down.
After that, the choices become more unpalatable.
In France the EcoWatt system allows people to monitor forecasts for power supply and demand days ahead, with three levels: green, orange and red. If the grid operator expects the situation to become critical, it will issue an alert the evening before.
“In rare cases where all electricity needs cannot be covered, local, controlled outages lasting a maximum of two hours could be organised,” the EcoWatt website says.
Bloomberg
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