This summer's expected el Niño event could disrupt rainfall patterns and be devastating for producers, some of whom are desperate for above-average harvests.
The weather phenomenon usually means precipitation drops below the annual average by between 10% and 40%, with extended extended dry periods and the possibility of no rain at the times it is most needed.
The probability of below-average rainfall for summer crop production is high for the upcoming season and livestock farmers will face prohibitively high costs to feed their stock if a drought hits, experts told Business Times.
Independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg said there is “close to a 100% probability that an el Niño event will occur and remain prevalent until about March to April of 2024”.
“Current development in June 2023 can already be classified as a weak to moderate event, with sea surface anomalies of between 0.7°C and 2.9°C warmer than normal in the so-called Niño areas. Forecasts also indicate a strong development that can be compared to strong events [drought] in history, like 1982/1983 and 2015/2016.”
Van den Berg said that when an el Niño pattern begins developing in winter and spring, the associated conditions usually persist until late summer or autumn.
Producers whose production inputs sky-rocketed in the past few seasons could be affected, as farmers need nothing less than above-average yields to profit this season.
— Agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg
“The timing of its development or weakening is often more important than intensity. An example is the weak-to-moderate el Niño event of 1991/1992 that caused the most serious drought in terms of summer crop production in at least the past five decades in South Africa.”
Sectors facing the highest risk are summer crops in soils with poor water-holding capacity, already marginal rainfall areas and where poor agronomical practices are followed, Van den Berg said.
“There are also some positive factors that can mitigate the effect of el Niño. Farmers will, in general, start the planting season with extremely favourable soil-water conditions, where already stored water can supplement the lack of rainfall in the growing season.”
Producers whose inputs skyrocketed in price in the past few seasons could be affected, as farmers need nothing less than above-average yields to profit this season, he added.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said the el Niño forecast did not necessarily equate to a bad agricultural season as farmers had now experienced four consecutive years of heavy rain that had improved soil moisture and grazing veld.
“This means there is a natural cushion for agricultural activity even if the rains are below the average of typically around 500mm. What will be necessary, however, is for the showers to fall in critical periods, such as seed germination and pollination, which are all essential for crop growing.”
Sihlobo noted that during the el Niño of 2018/2019, there was rain at crucial times and South Africa recorded a decent harvest — commercial maize at 11.2Mt, soybeans at 1.2Mt and sunflower seed at 678,000t.
Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB, said a pronounced el Niño this year could scupper the outlook for a rebound in agricultural growth in the second half of 2023 and for 2024.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.