Mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe will miss the Africa Down Under conference in Australia from September 6-8. He will instead be presenting the latest version of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to the cabinet, he said on the sidelines of a conference in Sandton this week.
The IRP was last updated in 2019. Back then, Mantashe was a relatively freshly minted minister who had just transitioned from running the ANC at Luthuli House.
If the cabinet approves, the draft document will be taken on a public consultation tour and finalised into formal policy before the end of the year.
Maybe we should add a month or two to the government deadlines as the policy-making process grinds slowly.
Many will be watching how the government plans to acquire more renewable energy between now and 2030. Mantashe’s department has been working on a new “gas master plan”, so we may see more of it in the IRP.
It will be a controversial document as energy policy is a heavily contested space.
Mantashe might have a difficult next few days, but that is a honeymoon compared to what finance minister Enoch Godongwana will be dealing with for his February budget.
He will have to rob Peter to pay Paul as he seeks to protect the existing spending. There is no room for new expenditure without drastic cutting elsewhere.
Those involved in job-creation programmes such as the Presidential Employment Stimulus will be watching the National Treasury with teary eyes, hoping there is R10bn in the medium-term expenditure framework to keep it going. As with other initiatives, the project is responsible for social stability in many poverty-stricken communities by providing job opportunities where economic activity is minuscule.
Agriculture minister Thoko Didiza, on the other hand, will be part of a delegation to bolster bilateral trade with Uganda. Agriculture remains one of the sectors that can help South African exporters, but on its own it would not move the dial, in the macro-sense.
Mining companies continue to post results that show declining income, mainly due to falling commodity prices and an inability to move goods to the ports.
All the euphoria about Brics will subside as the government deals with its difficulties and deteriorating finances. But as the focus moves back to the domestic picture, South Africa must prepare to host another international showpiece: the G20 in 2025.
Hosting it will cost tens of millions of rands, and that’s the least of our problems. It is a complex body that requires more bureaucratic skills. Its events move at a faster pace, with greater transparency.
We will approach the G20 rotating presidency without much of a plan, considering that we have none for South Africa. Our Presidency does not even have an economics adviser after Trudi Makhaya left earlier this year, yet the government is being pulled in all sorts of global directions.
While Washington may be angry with Pretoria for gyrating too much towards Russia and China, pushing South Africa deep into the Brics hole would not be tactful on its part
Our relationship with the West is shaky, and this will be apparent as South Africa looks to host the US-driven African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) conference later this year. This comes after a difficult conversation about renewing Agoa, which allows some South Africa-produced goods duty-free status in the US.
South Africa may still have the Agoa deal renewed despite the nervous and difficult conversations with its US counterparts earlier this year. While Washington may be angry with Pretoria for gyrating too much towards Russia and China, pushing the South Africa deep into the Brics hole would not be tactful on its part.
With one foot in the West and another trying to step deeper into Brics, the question is: what will we do with all this access and opportunity? Without a coherent government, there is literally nothing we can do.
We are already in the silly election mood, with a focus on next year’s national polls, which are likely to give us a coalition government. Planning for the big stage is not high on the political agenda right now.
The mining party in Australia is just one of the events ministers get to miss at this stage of the political calendar. Good luck trying to get the government to pay close attention to details until after the 2024 elections.
* Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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