South Africa’s political risks are becoming more pronounced by the day, with increasing water problems emblematic of broader state decay.
The risks will be magnified in the election period, though they may not be directly linked to the campaign’s drama. The elections add a layer of risk in an already schizophrenic country.
There’s the risk the elections will bring about financial market volatility, especially in the event of a coalition government. Should the ANC fall below 50%, you can bet on a short-term sell-off for a few days. The biggest fear is an ANC and EFF tie-up — one of the least likely scenarios, because the markets will revolt. The bonds and currency markets will move swiftly to voice displeasure, as we saw when Des Van Rooyen was finance minister for four days.
If the ANC scores around 45%, it will quickly form a government with the help of a few minority parties.
In my view, the least likely coalition set-up is a minority government, where all parties get together and gang up on the ANC. It has happened in local government, where parties pushed the ANC out of the metros in Pretoria and Joburg. I hang my lower rating of this scenario on the business sector’s fear of the absolute chaos associated with such a development. The markets and big business hate the idea of chaos.
The idea of a DA-ANC marriage is growing among many. Proponents of this idea believe the option would bring stability. It would be a short-term success that would gloriously fizzle out within two years or so.
One of the least considered scenarios is where the ANC scrapes through with just above 50%, bringing a 'business as usual' situation
Putting the political class and the white establishment in one basket would be a disaster within five years. It would be easy for a Malema — not necessarily Julius — or any populist leader to point out to millions of disenfranchised South Africans that the white and black elites are in bed together. South Africa has deep structural problems that are not going to be resolved anytime soon. Our hope hangs on the resolution of the energy crisis. But there is no sign that we can reach 4% growth shortly. We are not about to lift many people out of poverty soon.
The DA may want to run most of parliament’s key positions, starting with the speaker role and putting the ANC through the wringer in the accountability committees. That would be a great move for the DA, except it needs to have a broad skills pool to run such a project effectively.
One of the least considered scenarios is where the ANC scrapes through with just above 50%, bringing a “business as usual” situation.
But that would be scant comfort if the party dipped below 50% in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. If you combine the populations of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, you realise that makes up about half of South Africa. It would hurt the party immeasurably if someone else governed this half at a subnational level.
In the last decade the ANC loss of votes represented a trend similar to “Zanufication”, to how urban voters shunned Zimbabwe’s liberation party, Zanu-PF. Rural voters tend to help Zanu with a solid voter base, needing a little vote-rigging to get back to power.
In South Africa things are different, with most of the population in urban centres. Holding on to the rural masses will not help the ANC much.
Despite the anxiety around the elections, some thinkers predict things will get better in the future.
Joel Netshitenzhe, the executive director at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection, wrote in the Daily Maverick on Friday that, in the broader scheme of things, the economic trajectory is steadily but indeed changing for the better. The optimistic view is anchored by South Africans acting together to “intensify the reconstruction and recovery project and ensuring that the tide of economic change lifts all boats”.
Stavros Nicolaou, the group senior executive at Strategic Trade, reminds us that South Africa has been making global headlines for all the right reasons. We’re the only nation in the world to win four Rugby World Cups, the Proteas took us to a Cricket World Cup semi-final, Dricus du Plessis brought home an Ultimate Fighting Championship world title, and Bafana Bafana won a bronze medal in the Afcon championship, while in the showbiz world Trevor Noah won an Emmy Award and Tyla won a Grammy Award.
It’s good that some people have a more optimistic view of our short-term future, where the risks easily outweigh the opportunities.
• Mkokeli is the lead partner at the public affairs entity Mkokeli Advisory.
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