So, Ebrahim Patel’s name is missing from the ANC’s list of people to represent it in parliament after the May 29 elections.
That tells us two things: one is how much the ANC values his skills; the other is that it will be difficult for him to be in the cabinet again. Wait, do not pop the champagne corks just yet. Patel must have a strong sangoma, or whatever force it is that has backed him since 2009.
The trade, industry & competition minister has been disastrous everywhere in the national government but has remained there for 15 years. He was Jacob Zuma’s economic policy Goebbels as minister for economic development. Zuma created the department as an apparent afterthought, or a carrot to appease the unions — Patel’s constituency.
Being the nerd he is, Patel made himself valuable to Zuma, and central to policy conversation, by writing the New Growth Path policy document. He did most of this during the summer holidays of 2010 while his cabinet colleagues enjoyed lavish, long Christmas lunches with their families.
His propaganda included collating numbers across the government system, claiming R700bn of infrastructure funds were available to turn South Africa into a construction site. Of course, it was just propaganda, but Zuma loved this as it gave his first term a semblance of policy content that could be critiqued while he planned state capture.
Meanwhile, a high turnover in the department gave the impression that Patel was an impossible man to work under. Credible directors-general, including Richard Levin and Jenny Schreiner, left the public service. The turnover was even a concern among MPs, who raised questions about it.
Patel is deliberately over-researched and densely-spoken and uses details and dogma to bluff his way around. He is king in a cabinet where most people need help reading past an economics textbook’s contents page.
He appears to hate sharing information, which gives him an edge as his colleagues cannot go through the details with a fine-tooth comb. Anyway, only a few cabinet members are interested in policy in general, let alone economics.
It is a strange composition of a team by President Cyril Ramaphosa, especially since he leads in a cabinet system where, for example, Fikile Mbalula, during his time as transport minister, had, in principle, as much say on the economy as the finance minister. Thankfully, Mbalula had far more important priorities than pontificating over whether we needed growth or a new path.
Ramaphosa himself has long embraced the political personality of a tortoise, with no ability to crank up his own pace. But even he, surely, needs results, and choosing Mr Snail again would tell us all that this economy is going nowhere slowly
Patel is in charge of industrial policy, and his successes are hard to find.
He behaves like a trade unionist who thinks his primary duty is to master obstinance and give business a tough time all the time.
Instead of firing up industry, he pushes job protection — a typical trade unionist. His approach to competition policy cannot help South African businesses consolidate and take up growth opportunities on the continent.
He loves talking about black empowerment — in a low-growth economy where transactions are hard to come by. He is the best labour minister we never had.
But the labour protection he espouses helps no-one besides union bosses, who are concerned about protecting jobs — and therefore their membership base — and not the creation of new ones.
He should be called Ebrahim “Snail” Patel, because his love for detail leads to everything grinding slowly. For example, it takes three times longer than it did 20 years ago to complete a tariff investigation, according to a Global Trade Advisors probe . Since 2019, only 42 cases were finalised, yet 101 cases were finished in the five years prior.
The probe found that tariff investigations were increasingly spending more time within the ministry than with Itac, the body that does the technical assessment before a minister’s final decision.
The problem with taking too long on an investigation is that companies and jobs may be decimated by the time a tariff decision is taken, even if it is in their favour. There are many harrowing stories of his time, including the destruction of textile jobs — ironically in the sector in which he cut his teeth as a trade unionist.
It is a real wonder that he has kept his job. He really has a nice boss. Kaizer Chiefs would do well if it found GPS co-ordinates for his sangoma.
Patel’s problem is that competition for cabinet posts will be tough, whether the ANC scrapes through on its own or forms a coalition government. It may be difficult for Ramaphosa to use his constitutional provision to hire two cabinet members from outside parliament.
Ramaphosa himself has long embraced the political personality of a tortoise, with no ability to crank up his own pace. But even he, surely, needs results, and choosing Mr Snail again would tell us all that this economy is going nowhere slowly.
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