We are closer to a “pay-as-you-go” government than to a government of national unity (GNU). The idea of a GNU is just a ruse to dilute the perception of a previously unthinkable coalition between the ANC and the DA. Other parties will be there simply as props.
On Friday, the DA and the ANC reached a deal — just minutes before parliament met — to co-operate. The co-operation so far and ultimately is about the re-election of Cyril Ramaphosa. The rest of the deal will be worked out on the fly. It's that typical South African myth of being able to fix a plane while flying it. If the GNU works, it will be more by fluke than design.
Coalitions are tough arrangements, especially in an environment of a skills dearth, poor leadership and a trust deficit. The situation is made worse by the 14-day cap, which is woefully too short a period to craft a well-constructed partnership.
One example of a coalition that worked was run by an earlier incarnation of Helen Zille in the City of Cape Town, where she ran an 8-party coalition and managed to build a strong electoral base for the DA from that.
In policy terms, there are practical areas where the parties cannot co-exist. The first is the National Health Bill. Will the DA push Ramaphosa to repeal it? The other area is foreign policy. Will the DA be happy for the ANC to continue its stance against Israel?
Will the DA be happy for the ANC to continue its stance against Israel?
Ramaphosa has nine bills in his in-tray from the previous administration. They include the Public Procurement Bill, which the DA opposes. Would the DA be happy for Ramaphosa to sign it into law?
A GNU is similar in principle to the government appointed in 1994 in terms of the interim constitution. It included the ANC, the National Party and the IFP. It lasted for two years as a bridge to the final 1996 constitution. The permutations of a GNU are many and it could serve for a limited period, ideally with an agreed programme of action.
One idea that has been touted is the appointment of a second deputy president from a smaller party to serve alongside ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile. The only snag is that the post-1996 constitution has provision for just one deputy. So, the GNU gang would need to change the constitution so that the second deputy president idea could work out.
Ramaphosa will be inaugurated on June 19, and only then can we expect a cabinet to be announced. There has been an idea to appoint a finance minister from the private sector, but I do not see that happening in this environment of rushed talks and everyone in politics fancying their chance at executive positions.
Finance minister Enoch Godongwana can be expected to return. The GNU will make his life a bit easier than any other coalition scenario. His budgets will pass more easily than would have been the case otherwise.
The idea of appointing a finance minister from the private sector is meant to quash any opportunistic ideas from parties like the EFF, which wants its deputy leader Floyd Shivambu in the post.
It is worth remembering that Nelson Mandela reappointed a private-sector CEO, Derek Keys, as minister of finance in 1994, even though he had served in FW de Klerk’s cabinet. Keys stayed on for just two months before stepping back, at which point banker Chris Liebenberg was appointed from outside the cabinet ranks, serving in the role for almost two years.
Liebenberg was shadowed and succeeded by Trevor Manuel. Mandela also drew on the private sector in other areas, appointing former SAB CEO Meyer Kahn to head the South African Police Service for two years (1997-1999).
There are plenty of names from the private sector for finance minister: Mcebisi Jonas and Jacko Maree. But the question is whether they would want to give up their peace to get into the dark and dingy pit that is politics. Anyway, my money is on Godongwana coming back.
The idea of allocating clusters to various parties is growing. The DA, for example, could run a group of similarly scoped departments.
It's all going to be messy. The ANC will feel that its well-chewed gum is more adhesive than the party's grip on Ramaphosa. The coalition will break the party's stranglehold on the government, with constant threats of pulling out.
• Mkokeli is lead partner at public affairs consultancy Mkokeli Advisory
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