It’s been a rockier than usual awards season in the run-up to the final Oscars announcement on Sunday night. With AI controversies stalking The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez and the latter coming in for further criticism, first for its representation of Mexicans and Mexican culture and then later for the off-colour political opinions of its transgender star Karla Sofía Gascón, the easier certainties of last year’s Oppenheimer dominated race have been replaced by one that’s still too close in some categories to call with any certainty. That said, it’s time to place the final bets. Here are my picks for who will, could and in a perfect world, should win in a refreshingly strong-fielded race for the 97th Academy Awards.
Best Picture
Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance and Wicked
Who'll win: Anora – Sean Baker’s touching dramedy about the rollercoaster few days in the life of its Brooklyn-drawling sex-worker protagonist has enjoyed a recent windfall of acclaim at the Critic’s Choice, Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America Awards that have pushed it to the front of a competitive race for the top prize.
Who could win: The Brutalist – Director Brady Corbet’s sprawling, big-screen epic, made for an impressive shoestring budget of only $10-million is this year’s most ambitious and cinematic contender, narratively and thematically.
Who should win: The Brutalist and Nickel Boys – In a perfect world Corbet and impressive feature debutant RaMell Ross would share this award for their different but inspired films that both put the capital C back into cinema and demonstrate brilliant abilities to marry bold form to the service of dramatically engaging content.
Best Director
Nominees: Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez, Sean Baker – Anora, Brady Corbet – The Brutalist, Coralie Fargeat – The Substance, James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Who'll win: Sean Baker. The indie darling has established himself over the last few years as the foremost creator of small, bittersweet American, marginal character-driven stories that pack big, emotionally resonant punches. With recent award season successes, he’s set to take home his first directing statue.
Who could win: Brady Corbet. The complete and singular dedication of Corbet to realising his complex, multilayered tale of artistic struggle and the toils it exerts on those who commit to it, mirrors that of its architect protagonist and could see the director earn his reward on the night.
Who should win: Brady Corbet
Best Actor
Nominees: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist, Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo – Sing Sing, Ralph Fiennes – Colman, Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Who'll win: Adrien Brody. Twenty-two years after his win for Roman Polanski’s drama The Pianist, the intense Brody has returned to contention with his career-best performance as beleaguered Hungarian World War 2 refugee Lázló Tóth, trapped in a post-war America where the battle between fidelity to his artistic vision and the caprices of his wealthy benefactor threaten to steal his soul.
Who could win: Timothée Chalamet. The internet’s favourite actor does the kind of solid impersonation work and even sings his own songs in James Mangold’s flat, unimpressive but crowd-pleasing Bob Dylan biopic. It’s the kind of thing the Academy likes to recognise, even if, strictly speaking, it’s more aping than acting.
Who should win: With two previous nominations — the last of which was for Best Actor in The English Patient back in 1997 — it’s high time that veteran British leading man Ralph Fiennes gets the ultimate nod. His work in Edward Berger’s lush melodramatic adaptation of Robert Harris’ pulpy novel of Vatican intrigue, Conclave, is Fiennes’ best work and his most Oscar-worthy.
Best Actress
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo – Wicked, Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez, Mikey Madison – Anora, Demi Moore – The Substance, Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Who'll win: Demi Moore. At 62 the veteran 80s breakout star has had a late career moment thanks to her visceral performance as an ageing aerobics show host looking to reclaim her youth in a Faustian bargain struck with a mysterious serum in Coralie Fargeat’s body horror hit.
Who could win: Mikey Madison. The 25-year-old actress has made the leap from small-screen and feature bit roles to lead actress in a big way, thanks to her emotional rollercoaster performance as the titular heroine of Sean Baker’s social-realist anti-rom-com and with recent successes at the Baftas, her chances for an upset are looking stronger than Demi would like.
Who should win: Demi Moore.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Yura Borisov – Anora , Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain, Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown, Guy Pearce – The Brutalist , Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Who'll win: Culkin. His career-defining turn as a troubled cousin in Jesse Eisenberg’s funny, subtly profound examination of loss, generational trauma and familial bonds has seen the actor clean up at all this year’s award events. He’s a firm favourite to take home the gold tomorrow night.
Who could win: Yura Borisov. The Russian star who’s hugely popular in his native country has earned plenty of nominations for his quietly sweet turn as the hood with a heart of gold in Anora. While he’s been pipped to the post by Culkin at all the season’s other big events, there’s always the possibility of a last-minute surprise and well-earned big win care of the Academy voters.
Who should win: Guy Pearce. For the better part of three decades, the Australian actor has been putting in the hours, helping to anchor numerous widely-acclaimed films with his particular talent for complicated character portrayals. His work as the dangerously unpredictable millionaire villain in The Brutalist is some of his most memorable yet.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Monica Barbara – A Complete Unknown, Ariana Grande – Wicked, Felicity Jones – The Brutalist, Isabella Rossellini – Conclave , Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
Who'll win: Zoe Saldaña. She may enjoy the rare feat of having appeared in the three the top-grossing films of all time – Avatar, Avengers: Endgame and Avatar: The Way of Water – but the American actress of Dominican and Puerto Rican ancestry demonstrates with her performance in Jacques Audiard’s wild Mexican cartel musical drama that she can seriously act, sing and dance. With wins over crowd favourite Ariana Grande at all this season’s major ceremonies, Saldaña looks set to make a clean sweep this year.
Who could win: Ariana Grande. The children’s TV star turned pop idol did her impressive best on the singing front in smash-hit musical Wicked. Her performance as good witch Glinda also reminded fans that she began her career as a child star actress and that she hasn’t forgotten how to turn on the smiles and tears when called upon. It’s not quite a Lady Gaga acting chops demonstration, but it may be enough to convince Oscar voters.
Who should win: It’s a stain on the Oscars that veteran Isabella Rossellini has never been nominated previously but an award for her brief but memorably defiant turn as the female voice of reason in the male-dominated secretive world of Conclave’s Vatican would go a long way to rectifying that.
