If you think the weather is weird these days, you're only half right. The weather has always been weird and hard to predict.
However, the latest scientific data suggests Southern Africa's climate is changing faster than the global average.
Some experts say these changes may explain extreme events like devastating fires and seas.
An average temperature increase of 1.5°C-2°C across the region — well above the global average — has led to mitigation measures, ranging from resilient livestock to coastline storm barriers.
Climate change expert Francois Engelbrecht, of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, warned: "This is one of the reasons why we are so vulnerable — our temperatures are rising much faster than the global rate".
He said parts of northern Botswana have had a 3°C increase — well above the 2°C tipping point for dangerous climate change.
Two new studies found:
A decline in the number of days per year with low minimum temperatures and an increase in days with high minimum temperatures. This is pronounced in Cape Town, Port Elizabeth and Gauteng;
A decline in the days per year with low maximum temperatures and an increase in days with high maximum temperatures;
A slight increase in daily rainfall extremes in the southern to western interior and increases in the intensity of daily rainfall; and
An increase in rainfall at most rainfall stations in the southern interior and indications of decreases in the far northern and northeastern parts (although significant, these changes were small).
Recent climate modelling shows a similar scenario. The consensus is that South Africa can expect:
- An increase of 3°C-4°C in temperature on average by the end of the century;
- Increases of around 1.5°C-2°C by mid-century;
- Possible significant changes in rainfall by around 2050 with many provinces getting drier but KwaZulu-Natal getting wetter; and
- A decline in the rainy days per year across Southern Africa, but an increase in the rainfall amounts during the wettest days.
Climate change scientist Chris Jack of the University of Cape Town said: "The key thing is that even with no rainfall change, increasing temperatures result in higher evaporation from soils, which means higher water demand for irrigation, higher evaporation losses from dams, increasing water-quality problems and a whole host of other impacts."
Guy Midgley, professor of botany and zoology at Stellenbosch University, said: "We need to be learning everything we can from extreme events and gradual changes in climate about coping with, and then moving to anticipating and reducing the worst impacts of these changes into the future."
The warming climate is already having a range of effects and this is expected to increase as temperatures rise.
A study published last month in Nature magazine linked malaria incidence to spatio-temporal climate variations in Limpopo.
Other concerns include a surge in cholera and diarrhoea, flood damage and sea-level rise and associated contamination of ground water.
The warnings have prompted a massive response, including breeding climate-resilient livestock in the Northern Cape town of Leliefontein, and climate-resilient crops and agriculture techniques in uMngeni municipality in rural KwaZulu-Natal.
Climate change scientists are particularly jittery following news that a huge Antarctic ice shelf, Larsen C, is due to split from the mainland, creating a 5,000km iceberg.
The increase in temperature SA can expect by the end of the century
— 3-4%
Also worrying is President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the 2015 global climate change deal, the Paris agreement.
His decision is a major setback for climate change mitigation.
South Africa appears to be taking climate change seriously and is committed to the global mitigation effort.
"We are quite emphatic that we will stay the course," said Maesela Kekana, chief director for international climate change relations and negotiations in the Department of Environmental Affairs.
