Former Zanu-PF cabinet minister Jonathan Moyo says the military is plotting to oust President Emmerson Mnangagwa and could replace him with Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga or former central bank governor Gideon Gono.
Moyo, who fled Zimbabwe during the military coup in November 2017 that ousted president Robert Mugabe, is now exiled in Kenya.
He told the Sunday Times in an exclusive interview that the military had lost faith in Mnangagwa, largely because he had failed to revive the economy and was preoccupied with consolidating his power.
Though Zanu-PF political commissar Victor Matematanda this week dismissed Moyo's claims, dubbing him "an alarmist full of malice", Moyo is known to have implacable sources in the military to certain Zanu-PF members.
He has in the past spoken of "Good Samaritans" in the armed forces who helped him escape to SA following the coup, and there are still many Mugabe loyalists in the ranks of the defence force.
Moyo listed three scenarios for ousting Mnangagwa: a coup led by junior and mid-level soldiers who, like all government workers, were feeling the pinch of the economic meltdown; a palace coup, in which military commanders would force him to quit and then install a national transitional authority (NTA); or a mass "people power" revolution.
Moyo said the first option was the least likely because "an outright coup would take the country from the frying pan into the fire".
"A palace coup orchestrated by the military command element is most likely and is in fact the one currently under active pursuit," he said.
The second option would mean replacing Mnangagwa with another civilian.
"The army commanders have considered civilian faces to replace Mnangagwa," Moyo said.
"Among the well-known personalities they have considered is Gono, who some commanders see as a pragmatic and delivery-oriented person."
As governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe from 2003 to 2013, Gono maintained cordial relations with the armed forces top brass.
But on his watch inflation soared to astronomical heights.
While the coup against Mugabe was unfolding in 2017, Gono was one of the go-betweens in negotiations between Mugabe and the generals, because both sides trusted him.
As such, Gono was a frontrunner to replace Mnangagwa if the military's plan was carried out, Moyo said.
Gono this week declined to comment on Moyo's remarks.
Moyo said another natural choice was Chiwenga, who led the army during the coup.
He said there was a faction within Zanu-PF that supported the party's close alignment with the armed forces but wanted to see the back of Mnangagwa.
"The change that Zanu-PF people want is for Mnangagwa to go but for the system that is based on and driven by the army to stay," he said.
"But the idea of an NTA does not have much currency among commanders, most of whom have cynical and dismissive views about civilians. [Finance minister] Mthuli Ncube's disastrous performance has made them even more cynical.
"Because of this mistrust in civilian rule, Chiwenga is presented as a natural choice, but has to reform," Moyo said.
The third option of a popular uprising could be dangerous for the army, he said.
"The question of the moment is whether Nelson Chamisa and the MDC are ready to lead such a revolution. There are concerns that the MDC Alliance does not appear to be ready or willing to lead a popular revolution at this time."
At the end of last year, former South African president Thabo Mbeki flew to Zimbabwe on a mission to bring Chamisa and Mnangagwa to the negotiating table.
But Moyo believes Mbeki is the wrong man for the job.
Because of this mistrust in civilian rule, Chiwenga is presented as a natural choice
"What South Africa and the Southern African Development Community might see as president Mbeki's strategic advantage is seen in Zimbabwe as his strategic weakness," Moyo said, referring to Mbeki's mediation role that led to the Global Political Agreement (GPA) of 2008.
"While most Zimbabweans consider the 2009 government of national unity period to have been the best time for the country since 2000, they nevertheless see the GPA as a treacherous deal that favoured Zanu-PF."
William Mpofu, a researcher at the Wits Centre for Diversity Studies, said it was clear there was tension between Mnangagwa and the military. "Of the scenarios the military could go with, a palace coup ... As long as power is with civilian leadership, that government will be accepted by the international community."
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