The first meeting of the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) in the new year will test whether the radical economic transformation (RET) faction’s fightback campaign is gaining steam or whether President Cyril Ramaphosa is winning the power battle in the party.
This is according to several political analysts who spoke to the Sunday Times about the power struggle in the ANC ahead of a meeting of its highest decision-making body between conferences in the first week of January. The meeting is expected to discuss a recommendation by the ANC’s integrity commission that secretary-general Ace Magashule step aside from his position until his corruption trial is concluded.
Magashule has refused to step aside, saying he would only do so if requested by branches that elected him.
“Ace’s defiance is on the fact that the NEC must take a resolution on him,” said University of KwaZulu-Natal political analyst Lukhona Mnguni.
“If the NEC is unable to take a resolution on Ace Magashule then we will know that the NEC remains highly divided to a point that all sides are able to drown each other in a conversation and they are not willing to take a vote on the matter,” he said.
Mnguni argued that the Magashule matter is a test case which will indicate to what extent Ramaphosa’s hand within the NEC has been strengthened or weakened.
“That will be the biggest test,” he said. The renewed fight against corruption is another factor expected to influence realignments in the ANC as more of its senior members face criminal matters.
Analysts said while the fight against corruption is necessary, it may prove detrimental to the electoral prospects of the ANC.
Ongama Mtimka, of Nelson Mandela University, said the reconstruction of law enforcement agencies weakened during the state capture years has been problematised.
“We have arrived at a point where the political demands of leading the ANC are asymmetric to the rebuilding imperatives of the country.”
Mtimka said it is peculiar that the RET faction did not demobilise after the Nasrec conference.
“The very secretary-general immediately after conference said: ‘It’s just a matter of five years, and we are going to take it back.’
“It meant somebody was rallying the forces immediately. The potential of removing Ramaphosa at the national general council was cultivated back then,” said Mtimka.
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