Millions of poor South Africans are facing the prospect of a television news blackout when the government starts to turn off the analogue signal as part of the migration to digital broadcasting.
Among the first to be affected will be residents in the Free State who will not have access to television on local government election day, November 1.
Set-top box decoders are in short supply due to a global shortage of chip sets, leaving millions of families at risk of a TV blackout as the analogue signal shutdown spreads across the country by the end of January.
eMedia Holdings, the owner of e.tv, is going to court to force a delay in the cut-off date as it stands to lose millions of free-to-air viewers. The SABC will also be affected as it still has millions of viewers on the analogue signal.
A broadcast industry insider said rushing digital migration was a disaster and could cost the SABC and e.tv between 10-million and 15-million viewers.
"By government's own figures there is a 3.1-million shortfall of households that must be connected. We have said there are not enough set-top boxes in the market," said the insider, who asked not to be named.
"This could be a constitutional issue - you cannot just switch off 3-million homes. These are mostly the poorest of the poor, they don't have money for DStv."
The communications department is under pressure to complete digital migration by the date President Cyril Ramaphosa announced in his state of the nation address, March 31 2022.
SA signed an international agreement to complete digital migration by June 2015 to free up spectrum required by the big telecommunications firms to lower data and other telephony costs.
The process began in 2006 and was supposed to end in 2011 but it was bungled by a succession of ministers and subject to mismanagement and corruption. As a result, a project to provide millions of set-top boxes to indigent families has installed only 566,000.
Communications and digital technologies minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told the Sunday Times in a written response there is now an urgent need to complete the process.
"As of July 2015, SA has been sitting in unprotected frequencies with the risk of disruptive switch-off. At present, should any of our neighbouring countries demand to use their spectrum without interference from SA, we will have to switch off without notice," she said.
Her department's timetable shows the Free State will be the first province to have its analogue signal switched off, on October 31. This is also the cut-off date for households nationwide with a combined monthly income of less than R3,500 and which do not own a smart TV to register at the post office for a free set-top box.
The Northern Cape will be switched off in mid-November, North West at the end of November, Limpopo and Mpumalanga at the end of December and the remaining four provinces at the end of January.
Tebogo Leshope, the project manager responsible for digital migration, said the remaining months to March 31 would be a "mop-up" period.
Using Stats SA data from 2018, the communications department estimates 3.7-million households need a set-top box. So far, only 1.1-million have registered.
An industry expert said it would be impossible to register the remainder by October 31 and migrate them by March 31. "How are they going to do that when they have only installed 500,000 boxes in 10 years?"
About 10.5-million homes have already self-migrated to digital. Of these:
- 7.8-million view via DStv;
- 2.3-million use OpenView HD; and
- 450,000 are on StarSat.
The Broadcast Research Council, which measures audience figures on behalf of broadcasters, has accused the government of undercounting the households that rely on analogue signals. CEO Gavin Whitaker said there are 5.6-million analogue homes, comprising 28% of the TV-watching audience.
The council uses satellite imagery to estimate population numbers, and though its analytic tools don't track income, many of the homes can be assumed to be poor and in need of assistance, said Whitaker.
The communications department estimates 3.7-million households need a set-top box. So far, only 1.1-million have registered
Ntshavheni defended her department's use of Stats SA data.
"The Broadcast Research Council is not a statistical body whereas Stats SA is a member of the statistics body of the UN and its data is deemed the most reliable by international standards."
She said her department was intensifying its campaign on various platforms to get more indigent households registered and set up before the cut-off date.
"These platforms include the use of SABC radio stations, the transmission of analogue switch-off notices on affected TV screens and an SMS service across all mobile network operators."
Khalik Sherrif, the CEO of eMedia Holdings, said yesterday that e.tv could lose half its viewers and almost the same proportion of revenue if the analogue signal is switched off on March 31.
"We believe an unplanned, hard switch-off in a few months ... is not achievable simply because there are still many South Africans who receive TV through the analogue signal, and if you switch it off without a phased plan then these people will be without television."
He said eMedia wants 18 months to release the spectrum required by mobile network operators, and the global chip shortage meant there were too few decoders available to do it sooner. "For set-top boxes to get onto retail shelves it takes 20 weeks from order."
Ntshavheni, however, said two local manufacturers had told the government they had the capacity to meet demand for set-top boxes and other decoders.
The post office has stock of 800,000 set-top boxes for indigent families. A Sunday Times source said these could be out of warranty as they had been stored too long.
Kea Modiemoeng, chair of the Independent Communications Authority of SA, said the regulator welcomed and supported efforts to conclude the broadcast digital migration.
"This process is closely linked to Icasa's ongoing spectrum licensing endeavours."
The SABC and MultiChoice did not comment.
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