Half of the generating units at 14 of Eskom’s coal-burning power stations break down again within nine months of being repaired, and the worst performers are out of service for nearly 70% of the time they should be keeping SA’s lights on.
Shocking figures that have been obtained by the Sunday Times from Eskom, and which have not been made public before, paint a dismal picture for SA’s energy outlook.
Together with stage 6 load-shedding this week — the first time since 2019 — the information suggests that long and costly blackouts are set to become the norm, potentially costing the economy up to R4bn a day.
The statistics track Eskom plant performance between August 2020 and October 2021. They raise serious questions about the effectiveness of its maintenance programme, which Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has in the past cited as a reason for load-shedding.
Eskom operates 15 coal-powered stations. The sole unit at Komati power station was not part of the data set because it did not require maintenance during the period.
Some of the units were breaking down or not available at least 30% of the time, while the worst performers were out between 46% and 68% of the time.
Among the worst performers was Kusile, where unit 1 was out for 14 days from September 2021. After being repaired, however, it remained unavailable for 68% of the next nine months. Tutuka, in Standerton, had two units responsible for 1,170MW out for an average of 57.4% of the time following repairs in November 2020 and March 2021.
Repairs to unit 7 at the 45-year-old Hendrina power station over 15 days in February 2020 seemingly did not help, as the unit was unavailable 98% of the time after the first three months and 89% of the time after nine months.
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A breakdown in wage talks following a strike that closed three power stations this week has further complicated Eskom’s job.
Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha said the ageing fleet was breaking down so often that it was impossible to properly implement much-needed refurbishments.
“If you look at the data our units progressively become worse over time, though sometimes we are able to halt this decline, but this is to be expected with plant of this age.”
In the past two weeks Eskom’s energy availability factor — the percentage of energy available against installed capacity — was at just over 60%. The target is 74%.
Independent experts questioned the quality of the maintenance work being conducted.
“The maintenance they’ve been doing has been incorrect, and they actually need to go back to the basics, and to philosophy and reliability maintenance, not what they’ve been doing,” energy expert Lungile Mashele said. “There’s been a reluctance to do reliability maintenance and a preference for the procurement of new capacity, mostly renewable energy.
“What happens with Eskom is that if something breaks down, they just repair that with a target of bringing that station back online.”
Another energy expert, Ted Blom, said the data showed Eskom was being propped up by its older stations, some of which have not broken down in over a year. He also pointed to a sharp skills deficit, adding: “What we are told is that we need up to 2,000 imported skills that are adequately qualified to do something as simple as welding … But the government is not prepared to allow that high number of these skills.”
The first step is to solve the wage dispute. The second is for the workers to get back to work. The intimidation of other workers and the sabotage must stop
— Pravin Gordhan
However, one senior Eskom insider with generation experience insisted it was possible to get the plants running optimally again.
“We can get it right. An example is that Medupi has been running exceptionally well after we fixed the defects. It’s over 90% available,” he said.
“Given the age of the plant, as well as its size, all we’ve been able to do is maintenance to repair issues, and make them run safely, and not reliability maintenance … There is an issue of maintenance not being effective, it has nothing to do with history or what happened in the past,” he added.
The insider said one of the main issues is that Eskom has been chopping and changing power station managers, adding that in some cases they are changed within six months. “Kendal has had five or six managers in the past three years. How do you expect someone to turn things around in such a short period?”
Mantshantsha said another problem that affected maintenance during the period of the data was that public procurement requirements made it difficult to get spares and do adequate maintenance as the focus was on price instead of recognising the role that can be played by original equipment manufacturers. This matter was sorted out when Eskom was given exemption from the Public Finance Management Act two months ago.
While giving an update to the country on Friday, Eskom COO Jan Oberholzer said that though the parastatal had the requisite qualified technical people at power stations, this did not mean they were competent.
“We have colleagues with a lot of potential and an ability in time to execute what is required. However, we need to train, develop and mentor those colleagues to sustainably provide that service that is required. There’s a lot of focus on human development,” he said.
When Eskom implemented stage 4 load-shedding this week, SA’s demand peaked at 34,416MW on Monday, while available capacity was 29,344MW. Though demand dropped on Tuesday to 33,151MW, the industrial action meant available capacity dropped to 27,747MW, prompting the utility to ramp up to stage 6.
Mashele said the outlook for the new week would depend on Eskom’s ability to replenish open-cycle gas turbines, and whether the labour impasse could be resolved. “If those are currently depleted, and data as recently as Friday suggests this, then definitely we can look forward to more load-shedding. I’m not sure whether that will be stage 6 or if we will be kept at stage 4.
“Pumped storage was significantly depleted on June 29 and almost reached its minimum level; the weekend load-shedding will be used to restore those reserves,” she added.
The first time Eskom implemented stage 6 load-shedding, which in some cases leaves some areas with no power for up to 10 hours, in December 2019, President Cyril Ramaphosa cut an international trip short and came home. This week, on Thursday evening, Ramaphosa held a crisis meeting with Eskom executives and public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan.
Gordhan waded into the impasse between Eskom and labour this week saying: “The first step is to solve the wage dispute. The second is for the workers to get back to work. The intimidation of other workers and the sabotage must stop. Energy is a national issue … and the union leadership must be aware of the implications of this for the country as a whole and work in a co-operative way.”
Deputy President David Mabuza, leader of the political task team on Eskom, said he was concerned about the rolling blackouts.
We can get it right. An example is that Medupi has been running exceptionally well after we fixed the defects. It’s over 90% available
“The committee is alive to the fact that the main challenges of inadequate generation of electricity flow from its ageing fleet that is reaching its lifespan … Eskom developed a maintenance programme whose implementation is the responsibility of Eskom management and the board, and its oversight is exercised by the shareholder department,” his office said.
The government is also prioritising the removal of red tape in the independent power producers (IPPs) programme to ramp up generation capacity. The department of public enterprises sent the Sunday Times a document outlining some of the problems: how long it takes to do environmental impact assessments (between six and 18 months); delays in the registration of servitudes; licensing and registration of new generation projects; water use licences; and “delays in connecting IPPs by Eskom into the national grid”.
On Friday, after hours of negotiations, Eskom agreed to unions’ demands on the reinstatement of some conditions of employment in addition to the 7% salary increase offer it had tabled. The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa) are due to give the utility feedback on the latest offer on Tuesday.
Eskom confirmed 12 cases of violence or intimidation against workers, six of which have been reported to the police. One person has been arrested. An Eskom employee who allegedly attacked a security officer at Hendrina power station with a rod was released on R500 bail and is scheduled to appear in court on June 30.
Additional reporting by Isaac Mahlangu
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