“It is no longer a question of whether we need to be addressing the problems or solutions to climate change. Rather we need to do both, and urgently.”
So says South African climate change expert Gina Ziervogel who co-authored an International Panel on Climate Change report published every seven years.
She and other South African researchers have reflected on their work for the panel in a hard-hitting piece that appeared in the South African Journal of Science this week.
“The evidence of widespread loss and damage to natural and societal systems caused by human-induced climate change is stronger than ever before,” say the researchers. “This is especially true of South Africa, where human-induced climate change has already warmed mean annual surface temperatures by 1.2°C (relative to the 1850–1900 climate), with the six hottest years ever recorded having occurred in the last decade.”
They say human-induced climate change has led to increases in the number of extremely hot days, a reduction in rainfall over the winter rainfall region of the country, an increase in multi-year drought events (including the Cape Town drought of 2016–2018) and an increase in the number and intensity of extreme precipitation events (such as those that resulted in the 2022 Durban floods) and of marine heat waves along the coastline.
The accelerated warming has exacerbated water shortages and reduced economic growth in SA.
Ziervogel told the Sunday Times this week: “The problem is emissions and what we put into the atmosphere. South Africa is a major polluter and we need to take it seriously to reduce our emissions. This refers to the energy sector but it is also important for individuals to be aware of the energy they use in terms of transport, travel, buildings and what they eat. It is good to see us starting to move away from coal to renewables but this should have been done sooner.”
She emphasised the dire importance of a “just transition” in the Journal of Science paper.
“As we move from coal and dirty energy, we have to make sure the most vulnerable don’t suffer the most. How do we make sure those losing their jobs are not made worse off by the transition, for example?” she asks, adding: “I’m particularly involved in the adaptation side — in other words, how we’re responding to the problem and reducing the impact of climate change. It’s no longer about ‘mitigate or adapt’ — we have to do both. Adaptation is something we have to do now because we don’t want the devastating impacts of climate change to affect those who are already the most vulnerable.”
In a highly unequal society like SA, “we have to pay more attention to inequity and making sure that those who are the most vulnerable are not pushed to the side like they normally are”.
When cities are developing adaptation responses and mitigation strategies to reduce risks like flooding or heat, they often use an economic lens, asking which areas will suffer the most economically and where the biggest impact on the economy will be, she says.
“That often privileges those who are already privileged. When it comes to those who are most exposed to climate risk, like those in informal settlements who are at risk of floods, for example, there needs to be a shift in priorities to make sure that the needs of the most vulnerable are met and to understand what would work from their perspective.”
As we move from coal and dirty energy, we have to make sure the most vulnerable don’t suffer the most. How do we make sure those losing their jobs are not made worse off by the transition, for example?
Another important aspect is collaboration.
Ziervogel says that during the floods, rehabilitation work that had been done on the Palmiet river paid off as residents were affected less intensely than in other areas.
“This takes a very collaborative response that involves local communities, researchers, civil society, the government, NGOs and the private sector. It is about thinking holistically. A huge part is around finding opportunities for collaboration and sometimes local government is not good at engaging citizens — that is an area we have to get better at.”
On the upside, the international report is a rich resource for the country.
SA is well represented in the IPCC report and while “there is a lot of material that can seem impenetrable”, says Ziervogel, “it provides an excellent resource for South African decision makers in various fields — not just environment but also health, housing, water, agriculture and others”.
“We need to hold government accountable to ensure they’re doing enough because they are not. Then again, as we mention in the paper, the Presidential Climate Commission — formed two years ago — is doing exciting and fantastic work with civil society, trade unions, NGOs and government players across the spectrum. All groups have an opportunity now to engage with this material and move forward and draw on science to inform action. We need to continue and cannot put it on hold,” she says.
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