Cash-strapped South Africans are hunkering down this festive season, with many choosing to stay home amid predictions that holiday airfares will be five times higher than off-peak prices.
Though the hospitality sector expected to bounce back this year, with more South Africans travelling this December since the 2020 Covid travel restrictions, hotel occupancy rates are nowhere close to 2019 levels.
FNB property sector strategist John Loos said South Africans are still digging themselves out of the 2020 financial hole.
“For many people, a holiday is nice to have, but it’s a luxury. And when your income gets tight, you generally cut out luxuries first.
“The household sector took quite a big financial knock in 2020 so income was lost countrywide. It takes a few years to fully revive your finances. More recent economic pressures coming from high inflation and the high and rising interests rates have led to the considerable cost of paying household debt, further eating into disposable income."
A much anticipated year-end beach holiday in East London for Riaan Smit, his family and friends has been cancelled because “the costs just don't make sense”.
Smit, his wife Lizaan and their eight-year-old daughter, from Olivedale in Joburg, were planning to spend two weeks at a camping resort with friends.
“But our friends decided it wasn't worth it and cancelled. Then I worked out that it was going to cost us R13,000 for the site, but the fuel worked out at almost R16,000,” Smit said.
“It’s ridiculous. In the past fuel was not a big consideration. Now it’s the biggest cost. So instead, we have booked two weeks at Dube in Brits [in North West], where the accommodation will be R11,000 and the fuel cost about R2,000,” said Smit, who drives a Ford Ranger.
“It’s disappointing. We love the sea. There’s nothing quite like putting your feet in the sand and recharging after a hard year.”
Another widespread reason for staying local is the high cost of domestic flights.
A Sunday Times search for a single return flight between Joburg and Durban on the December 16 long weekend showed prices ranging from R2,531 to R4,024. With the distance flown being about 1,000km, this puts the cost of 100km of air travel between R250 and R402.
This is up from five years ago when, according to Kiwi.com’s 2017 Flight Price Index, South Africa rated 11th in the world for cheap flights, with the average cost being R87 per 100km of travel on domestic flights.
The index accounts for short-haul and long-haul flights from 80 of the world’s most frequently visited countries and cities, and calculates an average ticket cost per 100km of travel, using high and low season flight costs for more than a million journeys.
• 5x: Holiday airfares will be five times higher than at off-peak times
• R22.57: Current fuel price
— THE NUMBERS:
“People are furious about the costs of air travel, but I don’t think price gouging has anything to do with it,” aviation expert and pilot Des Latham told The Sunday Times.
“There’s a lot going into it, not just a shortage of seats. The fuel price has been going up between 60% and 70% year on year — and that is 75% of your costs. This recent demand ramp-up was unexpected, and there's a shortage of planes, pilots and ground crew,” he said, adding that the same thing was being experienced in Australia, where domestic flight costs had tripled, and the US, where they had more than doubled recently.
“If you are planning to fly and don’t book at least three to four months ahead of time, you are looking to pay upwards of R30,000 to R40,000 for a ticket to Australia or the States,” he said.
Prices, he said, were affected by many things, but the Covid lockdown, red-listing of countries and the mothballing of planes for a year and a half were big contributors.
Aviation specialist Linden Burns said flight prices were influenced by inflation and the jet fuel price, which went up by 100% in the past year.
“We are experiencing some challenges in our market due to capacity constraints. This relates to the fact that we don’t have Kulula.com, Mango, SA Express and other airlines. South African Airways is operating at only 10% capacity. These are some of the factors which may see people having to pay more as airlines are also trying to survive.”
“What we don’t have now is a luxury we used to have a few years ago where you could book your ticket at the last moment,” he said.
Few can afford to travel considering the prevailing economic conditions in the nation. The majority of businesses no longer pay a 13th cheque or bonuses, thus leaving people with little to no discretionary income
— Rosemary Matikiti-Manyevere
An online search on Cheapflights and Travelwings for a return flight from OR Tambo International Airport to King Shaka International Airport for the December 16 weekend for one adult showed the following fares:
- Airlink — Between R3,626 and R3,648
- Cemair — R3,890 and R4,014
- FlySafair — R2,531 and R2,742
- Lift — R2,890 and R3,723
- South African Airways — R3,933 and R4,024
Discovery Vitality CEO Dinesh Govender said a dearth in supply globally was pushing flight prices up.
“Predictions are that holiday airfares will be five times higher than at off-peak, including in South Africa where our travel industry is recovering from additional factors that have influenced reduced supply.”
Nelson Mandela University’s tourism department lecturer, Rosemary Matikiti-Manyevere, said inflation had a huge impact on domestic tourism.
“Over the past five years, hotel rates have skyrocketed. For example, one well-known hotel chain in South Africa [name withheld for ethical reasons] charged between R829 and R953 for a room in 2017, but now charges between R1,097 and R1,572. People are discouraged from travelling outside their regions, particularly for tourism-related activities, by the cost of fuel.”
“Few can afford to travel considering the prevailing economic conditions in the nation. The majority of businesses no longer pay a 13th cheque or bonuses, thus leaving people with little to no discretionary income,” said Matikiti-Manyevere.
Our prices are not on par with pre-Covid and therefore we are still good value for money for domestic travellers, and even better value for money for international travellers
— Tourist Business Council of South Africa CEO Tshifhiwa Tshivhengwa
“Holidays with the family are now considered a luxury due to the increase in the cost of living. Hotels and other accommodation facilities typically have a 100% occupancy rate during the Christmas season, but this may not be the case this year,” she said.
Tourist Business Council of South Africa said while it did not conduct research on comparative costs over the years, a global trend was for travel to be the first thing that people cut when they adjust or tighten their budgets due to rising costs.
“Often the increase in the cost of living does not match salaries, so it means there is less money to spend. In South Africa, what was done since the pandemic is a readjustment in prices especially to meet domestic tourism demand and pockets. What that means is that our prices are not on par with pre-Covid and therefore we are still good value for money for domestic travellers, and even better value for money for international travellers,” said the council’s CEO, Tshifhiwa Tshivhengwa.
“Tourism is not back to where it was in 2019, so occupancy rates are generally not where they were pre-Covid. We have some accommodation, hospitality and restaurant businesses that are operating at levels close to that but, generally, most of hospitality is operating at levels below 2019.”
Clients surveyed by the short-term loan provider Wonga found more than three-quarters would not be travelling this festive season, citing the petrol prices and the escalating cost of living as reasons.
The annual survey revealed that at least 27% of those travelling would be holidaying in their own province.
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