As Eskom prepares to announce its much-awaited winter outlook this week, one energy expert says the country should brace for the possibility of stage 10 load-shedding.
The power utility will give a “comprehensive” presentation on how the grid is expected to fare this winter as demand increases.
Energy economist Lungile Mashele said South Africans should expect more load-shedding during winter with the possible implementation of what would “essentially be stage 10 load-shedding”.
Mashele, an energy and infrastructure specialist at the Public Investment Corp, said no new energy generation had been sourced and three power-generating units at Kusile and one at Koeberg would not be back online before winter.
As Eskom has not been able to source additional capacity from the region and no reliability maintenance had taken place due to lack of funds, the power utility's fleet of ageing generation units would continue to provide unpredictable service.
“Unless something radical happens in the next few weeks, we are heading into winter with only 25GW (25,000MW) available capacity and demand at 33GW with a possibility of getting to 35GW. This is going to leave a 10GW shortfall, which is essentially stage 10,” Mashele said.
Eskom has in recent weeks had between 25,000MW and 27,000MW of energy available, while demand has been increasing steadily, with total demand now averaging more than 30,000MW.
Eskom told the Sunday Times it would outline its winter outlook to the nation this week.
“A state-of-system briefing has been scheduled at which Eskom will give a comprehensive presentation. The details will be confirmed in due course,” a spokesperson said on Friday.
The power utility said the last week of May and the third week of July have traditionally seen the highest demand for electricity over the years.
“Winter demand is, however, dictated largely by cold fronts and these cannot be accurately forecast more than about seven days ahead of time,” the spokesperson said.
The My Broadband website quoted Eskom this week as saying plans for 16 stages of load-shedding were being drawn up to ensure that should load-shedding beyond stage 8 become necessary, it was implemented in an orderly fashion.
The revised code, which is being drafted by the National Rationalised Specifications (NRS) Association, is expected to be submitted to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa by the end of May.
The likelihood is that we are going to be at stage 9, which is 12 hours without electricity, four hours on, four hours off
— Professor Hartmut Winkler
The NRS is a voluntary forum, which includes all municipalities, Eskom, Nersa and the SA Bureau of Standards, formed to develop standardised equipment specifications across the South African electricity supply industry.
NRS management committee chair Vally Padayachee said the association was updating load-shedding protocols to cater for worsening scenarios.
“The new edition specifies load-reduction stages, shedding and curtailment, to advanced levels greater than stage 8 — effectively all of an electricity utility’s load,” he said.
“This is a drive to make utilities ready for all emergency levels as a matter of principle, not with any expectation of using any or all of the higher stages. The requirement within the document is for readiness for this, but it does not specify how this must be achieved.”
He said one possibility was to extend the period that power was off, rather than the frequency of such periods.
“This allows control centres to manage the amount of load that must be shed using the same amount of ‘switching’ needed at stage 4.
“High levels of load-shedding could also have deleterious impacts on networks, so electricity utilities are required to study and understand this impact and change the load-shedding methodology to avoid this damage, so a single method of load-shedding will not apply to all stages beyond stage 8.”
Padayachee said the update was “part of ongoing readiness for any kind of emergency, which all mature electricity supply entities should pursue”.
Professor Hartmut Winkler, a professor of physics at the University of Johannesburg, said: “I suspect we will move beyond stage 6 as we go into winter. As temperatures drop a lot more people will use heaters ... Demand is going to increase and if there is nothing [from generation’s side] compensating for that, Eskom will have to increase load-shedding.
“I cannot predict what stage will take place in the coming weeks. It is about what breaks down and what they are able to fix. If we are unlucky and have a lot of breakdowns, we will go to stage 8.
“If we are lucky and things hold, we will be at stage 4. But the likelihood is that we are going to be at stage 9, which is 12 hours without electricity with four hours on, four hours off,” Winkler said.
Various industries are already preparing for the worst.
Business Unity South Africa (Busa), which represents big business, has accepted that the energy system will be constrained, with prolonged stage 6 outages expected.
Happy Khambule, Busa's manager for environment & energy, said Eskom would likely struggle to meet power demand in the coming weeks.
“The main thing for us now is getting the sense of what the utility's winter plan is, as well as some communication on what the possibilities of a grid collapse are. We understand that the system is going to be constrained and there's going to be less room for any type of load-shedding reprieve,” Khambule said.
He said Busa was projecting a growing gap between supply and demand during winter, with Eskom’s output likely to drop even as consumers sought more power for heating.
John Dludlu, CEO of the Small Business Institute, a network for people and organisations involved in small business, said the next set of liquidation numbers will tell “the sad story of small business owners and their businesses”.
“Without sounding alarmist, this crisis is fast turning out to be a perfect storm for a socioeconomic disaster. Our fear is that South Africa's small businesses may not make it through this prolonged period of blackouts amid the worsening cost-of-living crisis.”
Dludlu said the biggest problem for small businesses was that there was no credible short-term plan for winter.
“What's required is the acceleration of the implementation of the agreed national energy crisis action plan which has the support of most stakeholders. In a month, it will be a year since its announcement without impactful results, especially for SMEs.”
Allan Seccombe, spokesperson for Minerals Council South Africa, said the organisation would engage with the power utility on its winter plan.
“The Minerals Council, the Energy Intensive Users Group and the Ferro Alloys Producers Association will talk to Eskom soon about electricity supply and demand for winter and what the biggest power consumers can do to assist Eskom deal with constrained supplies,” Seccombe said.
Bongi Kunene, MD of the Banking Association of South Africa, said the Reserve Bank was co-ordinating responses to the energy crisis for the country's financial system.
“First and foremost, the aim will be to keep the operating systems and conditions at an optimal level,” Kunene said.
— Additional reporting by Hendrik Hancke
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