More skilled, middle-class and wealthy people appear to be moving from Gauteng to the Western Cape, driven by the attraction of better municipal services, more jobs and a quiet place to retire to.
The influx to the DA-run province started before 2011, according to data in the latest census released this week, which indicates that the Western Cape is not only attracting people from other provinces but from other countries as well.
However, looking at all sources of migration, Gauteng received more newcomers than any other province — 795,330 people in the past 11 years. Most migrants to Gauteng were from Limpopo (161,877) followed by KwaZulu-Natal (100,052).
Those flocking to the Western Cape also came in their numbers from the Eastern Cape (124,225), the Free State (12,823) and from abroad — 110,641 foreigners moved in.
Pedzisai Ndagurwa, senior researcher at the Gauteng City Region Observatory based at Wits University, said the migration to the Western Cape reflected in Census 2022 released by StatsSA was driven by middle-class South Africans who were relocating for economic and social reasons.
“If you look at the population age structures of the provinces [reflected in the census], Gauteng has the most defined bulge in the 25-40 age band, and has had for some time now. In comparison, the Western Cape has a higher proportion of the population older than 45 compared with Gauteng.
“An argument can be made that Gauteng-to-Western Cape migration is driven by older people, while Western Cape-to-Gauteng is driven by younger age groups,” Ndagurwa said.
He said the work-from-home trend kick-started by the pandemic meant people could live in tourist destinations such as Cape Town but remain in jobs originally based in offices elsewhere.
“If you are working for a US-based company [on the East Coast], six hours behind us, you are much better off moving to Cape Town because that city has longer daylight hours.
“The Western Cape is appealing to the middle class with good economic means, but not to those who are just surviving, because the cost of living is much higher there.”
Census 2022 shows South Africa’s population has burgeoned from 51.7-million in 2011 to more than 62-million in 2022.
The figures show that 97,972 people moved from Gauteng to the Western Cape over that decade, a 30.7% increase from the 74,915 people who made the move in the previous 10 years. Just 25,730 people made the reverse trip from the Western Cape to Gauteng between 2011 and 2022.
The Western Cape population has surged substantially and the province has overtaken the Eastern Cape to become the third most populous with 7.4-million people, up from 6-million in 2011. Gauteng is the most populous province, followed by KwaZulu-Natal.
Ndagurwa said there had been no proper investigation into the theory but there could be a link between the country’s brain drain and the movement of middle-class people to the Western Cape.
Most skilled South Africans who emigrate leave from the Western Cape, theoretically creating a vacuum for people from other provinces to fill.
“About 410,000 skilled people left South Africa for OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development] countries compared to about 294,000 skilled immigrants received,” Ndagurwa said.
“Given this context, and the increase in semigration to the Western Cape, one can arguably deduce that part of the Gauteng-to-Western Cape migration may be influenced by the skills gap in the destination province. But we need to state this with caution until we have fully analysed the latest census data.”1
The roads are not well maintained and the rates and taxis are just ridiculous… The other issue in Gauteng is safety. While I was there I was mugged. Crime is a big problem there
— Keika Motlhabi
A study by Lightstone Properties showed an increase in homeowners moving out of Gauteng and to the Western Cape. The year-on-year rise was 39% in 2019 and 43% in 2021.
Furniture transport company Cape Removals reported in August that its Johannesburg-to-Cape Town business was growing. The company said reasons given for moving included better job prospects in the Western Cape, Cape Town being a top tourist destination and having the “best schools”, access to coastal towns and better local government.
Electronics engineer Keika Motlhabi moved from Gauteng to the Western Cape just over a year ago because she found a new job. Now living in the prosperous Cape Town suburb of Parklands, she feels no nostalgia for Gauteng.
“The roads are not well maintained and the rates and taxis are just ridiculous… The other issue in Gauteng is safety. While I was there I was mugged. Crime is a big problem there,” she said.
Migration from the Eastern Cape to the Western Cape, as substantial as it was in the 11 years since 2011, was still 27.28% down on the 170,829 people recorded the decade before. Ndagurwa said the main driver was economic opportunities.
“There is also a distance issue, to move from Eastern Cape to Western Cape is much closer than Eastern Cape to Gauteng. Previously, there used to be more people moving from Eastern Cape to Gauteng than Eastern Cape to Western Cape,” he said.
Unathi Njanjana, 35, moved from the Eastern Cape to Western Cape in 2007. She said everyone she knew had wanted to go that route from the time she was a child. She went to Cape Town to improve her matric results and then studied administration and secured a job. She lives in Mfuleni township on the outskirts of the city.
“People who came from Cape Town were revered in the [Eastern Cape] townships and rural areas. Growing up then, we believed this is the place we would like to go to,” she said.
“There are also opportunities for education in the Western Cape. It is easier to find schools where you can study and later get a job. It is extremely difficult to get a job in Eastern Cape. The Western Cape also has farms, factories and big companies where people can work.”
Heather Woodgate, 62, who runs a property company, left Johannesburg for Cape Town in January, propelled by a variety of factors including her love of the ocean. “The municipality in Cape Town is better run. I don’t have a good experience with the municipality in Johannesburg,” she said.
“They also tripled my rates and I must put an objection for the evaluation and that takes long. I simply lost faith in the municipality. I cannot do business in Joburg,” she said.
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