The sun has played a critical role in keeping the lights on for a near-record three weeks as homeowners and businesses snub embattled Eskom in favour of solar power and battery storage to escape load-shedding.
Eskom confirmed the installed solar energy capacity in the country is now 5,439MW — the equivalent of almost five-and-a-half stages of load-shedding.
The rapid switch to solar is illustrated by the addition of 2,197MW of installed solar capacity which has come on line in the past 12 months. Eskom figures show there was 2, 264MW of installed solar capacity in July 2022.
A single stage equals 1,000MW of electricity.
An analysis of the country's energy demand in week 15 of the year, over the past four years, reveals Eskom recorded its second-lowest energy peak demand last week Saturday at 27,816MW while its highest available generation — which includes contribution from renewables — was 33,989MW last Thursday.
And more solar projects are in the pipeline that will add about 4,500MW to the mix.
These projects exclude bigger installations which are part of the department of minerals and energy's Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme which has its bid window 7 request for proposals now open.
The rise of solar energy, in addition to other factors such as increased maintenance by the power utility and lower demand, has contributed to the latest reprieve from rolling blackouts — the second-longest period without load-shedding in the past two years.
The country entered day 25 without being plunged into darkness on Saturday.
“The morning and evening peaks [energy demands] over the past months have been typical and as expected. There has been a slight continuous decline in the evening peak demand since 2007,” said Eskom.
“The most notable reduction in demand has been during the day and (one can) assume that it is due to the contribution from rooftop PV (solar systems),” Eskom said.
“Lower daytime demand has helped in replenishing emergency reserves. However, the improvement in the overall generation capacity available has contributed significantly in the suspension of load-shedding,” Eskom said.
The National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) said 1,366 solar photovoltaic (PV) installations had been registered with a total capacity of 4,653MW since 2018.
Nersa spokesperson Charles Hlebela told the Sunday Times these projects excluded large-scale independent power projects under the department of mineral resources & energy and energy's procurement programme and other registered renewable energy installations “using other technology resources”.
Solar during the day and wind at night has contributed to bolstering available generation capacity
“Their connection time is dependent on their different planned commercial dates. Because most of them are small (less than 1MW), and do not require a lot of permits as in the case of large projects, they are usually commissioned within a year,” Hlebela said.
South Africa's midwinter energy peak demands hover between 33,000MW and 36,000MW — indicating the potential for load-shedding to return in the coming months.
Independent energy analyst Clyde Mallinson said the country's energy demand in the first three months of 2024 dropped by 1,400MW on average, which reduced the energy shortage which averaged 1,800MW last year.
“Going into winter, if Eskom is able to keep the coal fleet running like it is now, we are more likely to see load-shedding [only] during the cold snaps at peak time in winter,” Mallinson said.
He said the big drop in demand meant the shortage was hovering about 400MW and with Eskom expected to cut back on maintenance in winter, what needs to happen is for “unplanned breakdowns to be kept at a minimum”.
The SA Photovoltaic Industry Association's (SAPVIA's) technical specialist on solar energy, De Wet Taljaard, said Eskom's reduction of unplanned outages, pumped hydro and the use of open gas turbines also contributed to the suspension of load-shedding.
“However, solar during the day and wind at night has contributed to bolstering available generation capacity,” Taljaard said.
SAPVIA's statistics indicate installed solar energy capacity in the country is now 5,659MW with residential premises amounting to slightly more than 10% of that at 620MW.
Private sector solar capacity grew by about 61%, or 2,068MW, year-on-year from March 2023 to March 2024, says SAPVIA.
Now, at utility scale, there is 1,86MW solar capacity while the rest is divided between small-scale embedded generation industrial and commercial use at 1,247MW and large scale commercial and industry at 1,925MW, according to SAPVIA figures.
“The primary growth areas in 2024 will be in the larger commercial and industrial segments,” Taljaard said.
Brian Day, chair of the SA Independent Power Producers' Association (Saippa) said despite grid allocation challenges, installation of solar PV systems and other renewables have continued.
“There's between 10 gigawatt and 100 gigawatt of renewables projects still coming ... they are at different stages of development. In three years we should be getting five gigawatt or more a year,” he estimated.
Day said with the minerals and energy department's request for qualification and proposals under the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers' Procurement Programme seventh bid submission phase now open, this would lead to more big renewable energy projects.
Eskom's R9bn Just Energy Transition Project, funded by the World Bank Group which seeks to decommission the 56-year-old Komati coal-fired power plant and replace it with renewable energy — mainly solar and batteries — will see the power utility having its own solar capacity.
“We have started with the development of PV capacity, mainly at the coal power station sites. We are far advanced with the development of seven projects with 350MW of capacity to come online in the next three years,” Eskom said.
The power utility expects to have additional 1,100MW projects after the completion of the initial seven projects.
“Further opportunities are in the pipeline. This excludes PV capacity at pilot sites and own-generation at facilities and office buildings,” said Eskom.
The longest period without load-shedding was 28 days, recorded from March going into April 2022.
Other recent periods without load-shedding in the past two years included 18 days in August and September 2022 and 20 days in May and June 2022.
The longest period in the past five years was 116 days between March and July 2020 when the country was largely under strict Covid-19 lockdown.
