The lull in violence on the Mozambique side of the SA border is only the eye of the storm and with the presidential inauguration around the corner that country must brace itself for more to come.
Violence broke out on October 24 last year when it was announced that the winner of the Mozambican presidential election was Daniel Chapo of the Frelimo party. Frelimo has been in power for 50 years.
Almost 300 people have since died in the protests with many Mozambicans blaming heavy handed security forces for unnecessary deaths.
Last week, President Cyril Ramaphosa sent security adviser Sydney Mufamadi to the region as a special envoy to discuss escalating post-election violence threatening regional stability.
On Friday, Joe van der Walt, the CEO and founder of Focus Group, a private intelligence company that specialises in Africa with a strong focus on Mozambique, said: “It is very quiet at the moment, as it has been for the last few days.
“There has been the odd incident, but broadly speaking the violence has subsided. People must however not be fooled, we expect more to come when Daniel Chapo is inaugurated on January 15.
“Our internal sources are currently assessing the situation but the feeling is that there will be more trouble in the days leading up to January 15. The opposition and protesters are regrouping at the moment.”
The real question is what will happen after January 15.
“President Chapo will be the new man in the hot seat and he will want to stamp his authority on the situation. It remains to be seen to what extent he will go.”
For the moment the borders are open to traffic from both sides.
“But that can change at a moment’s notice,” said Van der Walt. “The situation is still very fluid.”
On Thursday, the National Penitentiary Service of Mozambique (Sernap) announced that 322 inmates, out of 1,534 who escaped on December 25 from the maximum security prisons of Machava and Maputo province, had been recaptured. Sernap vowed to “intensifying operations to recapture the fugitives”.
MZ News, a local news platform, reported on Thursday that soldiers and other members of the Mozambican security forces were still searching neighbourhoods for the prisoners who remained at large.
“The escaped prisoners were serving sentences for various crimes, including terrorism-related actions, murder, robbery, drug trafficking and other serious offences, and their sentences range from five to 25 years in prison,” MZ News reported.
Meanwhile, SA government officials have contingency plans in place ahead of possible further impacts.
Department of home affairs spokesperson Duwayne Esau said temporary facilities had been identified to process potential asylum applications. Locations are the Lebombo, Kosi Bay and Phafuri ports of entry.
“A team from the refugee reception centres in Tshwane, Durban and Musina are on standby to be deployed to these Ports of Entry to process asylum application should a need arise,” Esau said.
“SA has consolidated its response to the situation in Mozambique through the National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure. The department of home affairs leads a workstream that looks at immigration issues, particularly those related to asylum-seekers,” he said.
To date, no asylum-seeker applications have been received.
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