Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie is sticking to his guns over the true number of unemployed in South Africa despite widespread rejection of his comments that the jobless rate is about 10% if the self-employed are taken into account.
In an interview with Business Day, Fourie said the official Stats SA unemployment rate of 32% did not paint an accurate picture. He said South Africa should emulate Mexico, which factors in the informal economy in reporting an unemployment rate of less than 3%.
“The unemployment rate is probably actually 10%. Just go look at the number of people in the township informal market, who are selling all sorts of stuff, who have a turnover of R1,000 a day,” Fourie said in the interview.
On Friday Capitec, South Africa's biggest retail bank, acknowledged the controversy that Fourie’s comments provoked.
Stats SA called the comments “misleading and incorrect” and the EFF condemned them as “an attempt by the white capitalist establishment to hide the failure of the DA-ANC coalition government, which has done nothing to grow the economy or create jobs”.
Capitec said in response: “Our intention was never to downplay this reality [of unemployment], but rather to broaden the conversation to include the immense, often unmeasured, economic activity within the informal sector.
“From our extensive presence in communities across the nation, we witness the daily resilience and entrepreneurial spirit of people who are creating their own opportunities. To overlook this vital part of our economy is to ignore a key driver of potential growth.”
The quarterly labour force survey (QLFS) issued last month gave the unemployment rate as 32.9% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 31.9% in the previous quarter. Youth unemployment rose from 44.6% to 46.1%.
Capitec said the focus should be on enabling growth, not arguing about numbers.
“The challenge is not to debate statistics, but to find actionable solutions to develop skills and provide access to markets and funding to enable growth,” its statement said.
Stats SA on Friday rejected Fourie’s argument and said its calculations were credible and transparent.
Our reported unemployment rate reflects those who are actively looking for work, regardless of whether employment is formal or informal
— Stats SA
“The assumption [by Fourie] reflects a misunderstanding of both our approach and our data. “Stats SA does, in fact, include the informal sector in its labour market statistics,” it said.
It said informal employment — defined by tax registration status and enterprise size — was captured in the QLFS and in dedicated reports such as the “Survey of employers and the self-employed”.
“To suggest the informal economy is excluded is misleading. Our reported unemployment rate reflects those who are actively looking for work, regardless of whether employment is formal or informal. Lowering the rate by simply reclassifying people is not a statistical adjustment — it would be a distortion.”
It said the QLFS gathered information directly from South Africans in their homes about their employment status, job-seeking behaviour and economic activity.
The methodology was aligned with the International Labour Organisation’s globally recognised definitions and indicators, which gave it integrity and made comparisons with other countries possible.
“Adjusting the methodology to produce more ‘favourable’ numbers is not an option. Any changes must be guided by statistical rigour rather than convenience or external pressure.”
Economists and academics said Fourie’s assertions were based on a misunderstanding of the unemployment metrics.
Raymond Parsons, professor at the North-West University Business School, said the QLFS “does indeed show that self-employment is counted as part of employment”.
“In any event, with South Africa’s present GDP growth rate at about 1% and population growth at 1.6%, the suggestion that the jobless rate could only be 10% does not appear credible.” Even if total unemployment is found to be slightly below the present Stats SA figure, it is still unacceptably high,” said Parsons.
Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist and head of research at Rand Merchant Bank, said Stats SA was a reputable institution with a track record in providing globally benchmarked information and data. “There is nothing that we can see that suggests its methodology on the labour statistics are incorrect,” Mhlanga said.
Asanda Fotoyi, senior economics lecturer at the Wits School of Governance, said most informal businesses were survivalist but there was evidence that some created jobs.
The contribution of the informal sector was hard to measure, but Stats SA “does well to capture [it] in their labour market dynamics data”. The “Survey of employers and the self-employed” also captured information on informal non-VAT registered businesses, said Fotoyi.
Neva Makgetla, senior economist at Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies, said despite government support programmes small business had not thrived despite the ending of apartheid.
“The main reason is that government initiatives remained fragmented and too small to overcome the historic destruction of the ecosystem to support informal business and small business in general,” said Makgetla.
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