With South Africans going to the polls on Monday, the ANC is worried this week’s power outages could cost it outright victories in key metros, including Johannesburg, while the DA is trying to convince voters that it alone can keep the lights on.
The ANC's internal polling had already put the party’s voter support below 40% in Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay — and it was hovering just under 50% in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni before Eskom implemented stage 4 load-shedding this week, ANC national head of elections Fikile Mbalula told the Sunday Times.
It now seems unlikely that voters will give any of SA’s three biggest political parties convincing majorities in these metros. Only Cape Town and Durban are likely to vote overwhelmingly for the incumbent parties, the DA and ANC respectively.
He said that electricity is an issue and that the party fears the middle class could punish it for the recent load-shedding.
“It will [affect our support] in terms of the middle class. But our people are load-shedded every day. They have been living without electricity for years and continue to vote for the ANC,” Mbalula said.
“The middle class got their irk not to vote for us as you’ve seen; they have taken to Twitter and are very angry because of load-shedding ... they just got irked. But the base of the ANC has suffered in terms of electricity for years. Even when the president explained it, people understand.
“The people who got irked is the middle strata, black and white ... they are just pissed with the ANC.”
Mbalula's boss, President Cyril Ramaphosa, told journalists on Saturday that he was putting pressure on Eskom to stabilise the power supply.
“Will it have a negative effect on the elections? I would think not, and our people understand where we are,” Ramaphosa said. “They are angry, I have conceded that the anger is there but, at the same time, they have come to understand and internalise the explanation. We have often known that Eskom is the biggest risk, not only to the economy, but to the lives of our people.
“We need to manage that risk because wishing it away really is not the most rational thing to do. Right now, I think we are managing the risk.”
The DA has made load-shedding a central theme of its campaign and its onslaught against the ANC, which began the campaign with a string of apologies for past missteps and the promise to do better in future. The DA has bombarded voters with messages insisting that only it will be able to keep the power flowing.
This week, top ANC figures, in an attempt to gain traction in the power debate, distanced themselves and the party from Eskom. The party’s deputy secretary-general, Jessie Duarte, told the media that the ANC would demand answers from Eskom on why the power utility had to implement load-shedding this week.
This was followed by a press conference by public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan and Eskom CEO André de Ruyter, who sought to explain what had led to the power cuts.
But ANC leaders in Gauteng are seething as they blame the power utility for costing the ANC votes.
An ANC NEC member who asked not to be named said outages could cost the party control of the City of Johannesburg. An internal poll two weeks ago showed that the ANC would be able to form a government in alliance with one of the small parties.
“Now that research is no longer reliable at all,” said the insider.
The head of the ANC campaign in Gauteng, Lebogang Maile, said the issue of electricity has made this election very difficult.
“That is why we are arguing that those municipalities that have capacity should be allowed to supply electricity directly ... there have to be drastic changes in how Eskom works with municipalities, especially in Gauteng,” he said.
City Power has sought to convince Eskom to exclude areas being serviced by the Joburg entity from load-shedding. But Eskom has argued that City Power does not produce enough power to be exempted from scheduled blackouts.
ANC leaders in Johannesburg have also been pushing for City Power to take over the areas that are now being serviced directly by Eskom. This is perceived as an attempt to make sure there are no power disruptions in their support-base areas.
The party’s election campaign in Johannesburg is also said to have suffered because of the death of its chair, former mayor Geoff Makhubo.
The campaign in Johannesburg had no face — which is why Gauteng relied heavily on Ekurhuleni to show its muscle.
That is why we are arguing that those municipalities that have capacity should be allowed to supply electricity directly ... there have to be drastic changes in how Eskom works with municipalities, especially in Gauteng
— Head of the ANC campaign in Gauteng, Lebogang Maile
ANC leaders toed the party line on Saturday, saying they aim for a majority win at the polls, but it is clear that negotiations to form coalitions will begin as soon as possible.
EFF leader Julius Malema told his supporters on Friday that his party is willing to work with both the DA and the ANC to form governments in hung municipalities. The DA, on the other hand, seems to be confused about how to approach coalition talks. Party leader John Steenhuisen recently told the Sunday Times that Nelson Mandela Bay is the only municipality the DA is not willing to work with the ANC in. But on Wednesday he changed his tune, saying his party is not willing to work with the ANC at all.
Mbalula said his party stands a good chance of winning the country’s biggest metros without forming any coalitions.
“Our research put us up to 50% in Johannesburg and slightly under 40% in Tshwane and Gqeberha. The poll tells you a story that you should go out and mobilise. It put us in a good space. I think it’s good results if you’re at 40% before campaigning.
“We are confident that we will defend all our wards. The question is what percentage.
“We focused on the metros this campaign. The urban vote is important to us. Research in terms of registration shows that the majority of people who have registered are based in those areas.”
Mbalula said the ANC has not discussed coalition as it aims to win with a majority of votes. But he said the party is willing to work with opposition parties to form governments.
“The results will tell us who to work with. It is difficult now to say we won’t work with this one, we will not work with that one. We were very much prepared to work with the EFF in the last elections when we lost, and they rejected us. So the question of coalition, we don’t attach principle to it like other people have done, because at the end of the day to govern a city depends on the will of the people.
“Coalitions can’t be defined by set principles. You work with everyone.”
However, it would be difficult to enter into a coalition with the DA, Mbalula said.
“The DA is our opponent. We don’t wish to be in coalition with them. But in the past we have worked with them. But they are our strategic opponents so we don’t want to work with them ... because they want to overthrow the ANC.
“We are opposed to a set of policies which they espouse. Which basically draws a line between us and them. They wouldn’t support expropriation of land without compensation. They don’t support affirmative action. They are just a racist party, so how are we going to work in stable coalition with them? So coalitions are not favourable,” he said.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.