ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile appears to be well placed when it comes to deciding who becomes the next party president — President Cyril Ramaphosa, former health minister Zweli Mkhize and he are the top contenders.
Mashatile’s name appears for deputy president on slates supporting both Ramaphosa and Mkhize. But there are also those within Mashatile’s grouping who would prefer him to take on Ramaphosa instead of campaigning to be his deputy.
As it stands, Mashatile will be up against the incumbent, Deputy President David Mabuza.
Other Ramaphosa backers support either justice minister Ronald Lamola, Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane, human settlements minister Mmamoloko Kubayi or Senzo Mchunu for the deputy position.
Lamola and Mabuyane have been endorsed by their home provinces — Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape. Kubayi and Mchunu are yet to receive an endorsement from a province.
Of the five provinces that have endorsed their favourites for deputy president, Mashatile got the nod from three — Gauteng, Limpopo and Northern Cape.
These developments place Mashatile in a position to choose his running mate for president.
Gauteng, Limpopo, Northern Cape, Mpumalanga and Eastern Cape have all expressed their wish for a Ramaphosa second term, while KZN is expected to choose Mkhize.
Regardless of who ends up winning the race, Mashatile appears certain to walk away from the conference as deputy president.
“This is the end of slate politics in the ANC. Provinces, structures and branches have a say on who occupies each position — be it president or deputy — and so far the trends suggest that provinces seem to have sufficient consensus on the deputy president,” one of Mashatile’s lobbyists told the Sunday Times.
“He is likely to get more nominations from provinces than any other leader — even the president.”
How does Mashatile find himself in such a comfortable position?
“He has played his role in ANC politics and he has shown he is a principled cadre of the ANC. He doesn’t buy people’s faces — during the [Jacob] Zuma era, during the Thabo [Mbeki] era.
“He’s been around long enough, and he has been involved in bruising battles in the ANC for a long time. He led Gauteng, he’s the only provincial leader that has ever filled a Gauteng stadium. They called a ‘Mashatile speaks’ at FNB and he filled the whole stadium.
"Zuma then hijacked the whole thing and tried to come there and people walked away. There’s no provincial leader who has ever done that, or a leader outside the top six. Even ANC presidents have struggled to fill FNB.”
Mashatile’s support is not limited to the provinces that have officially endorsed him, but stretches to pockets of dissenting branches in provinces that have different preferences.
In Eastern Cape, Mabuyane's opponents have made it clear that they will rally behind Mashatile at the conference.
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He’s been around long enough, and he has been involved in bruising battles in the ANC for a long time
— One of Mashatile’s lobbyists
This grouping commands the branches that opposed Mabuyane’s successful bid for re-election as provincial chair.
“Slates used to be dependent on the personality cult of a president and paid less attention to who surrounds the president.
"This time around provinces are saying each position is going to be judged on its own merits and we’re going to put the best candidates forward regardless of their proximity to the president,” said an ANC insider.
The solid ground Mashatile is on has prompted some within his inner circle to suggest that he consider aiming for Ramaphosa's job.
But insiders say he has rejected this proposal, insisting that he believes his best shot at getting to the top job is via the deputy president route.
But Mashatile's tenure as treasurer-general has been a bumpy ride. He has struggled to raise funds to keep Luthuli House afloat and as a result the party has at times failed to meet its financial obligations, including paying staff salaries.
He has blamed this on the Political Party Funding Act but his critics say he has failed to convince business to donate to Luthuli House.
The race is also heating up for the other top six positions. This week finance minister Enoch Godongwana confirmed that he was available for the position of treasurer-general.
He is expected to be challenged by party spokesperson Pule Mabe and Ekurhuleni ANC chair Mzwandile Masina.
Former Nelson Mandela Bay councillor Andile Lungisa is also eyeing the position but may not be eligible after his suspension from the party.
The position of secretary-general is likely to see a contest between former KwaZulu-Natal provincial secretary Mdumiseni Ntuli and deputy minister of public enterprises Phumulo Masualle.
ANC national chair Gwede Mantashe can expect a challenge from Limpopo premier Stan Mathabatha and deputy finance minister David Masondo.
The position of deputy secretary could produce a contest between former water affairs minister Nomvula Mokonyane and Luthuli House general manager Febe Potgieter-Gqubule.
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