Election observer Mbali Ntuli, a former DA politician, says based on the current climate, the chances of knocking the ruling party below 50% for the first time is “credible”.
“This is such an interesting election. It is very contested, and for a change it seems that the opposition parties are more organised and in touch with their people on the ground,” Ntuli, who is the CEO and founder of the nonprofit company (NPC) Ground Work Collective, said on Friday.
“Ground Work Collective is an NPC and we do a number of different things, but currently focusing on the democratic participation of citizens,” Ntuli explained.
Ntuli believes opposition parties are gaining ground on the ANC.
“The contestation on the ground is credible at the moment. Knocking the ruling party below the 50% mark is a real possibility in this election.
“That doesn’t mean I think the ANC will fall very far. I don’t believe it possible for them to have a double-digit decline. If I had to make a prediction, I would say they will end on about 47%.”
Ntuli believes a mindset change is taking place among voters.
“Having a single ruling party for three decades in a democracy is democratically abnormal. It feels like South Africans are starting to believe that change is possible. Hopefully they will show this at the polling stations.”
But low voter turnout is a serious issue.
“People must realise that if you do not vote it is the same as giving your vote to the ruling party. If you stay at home on voting day, only the ANC will benefit from your absence,” Ntuli said.
The battleground state will be KwaZulu-Natal, with Jacob Zuma the wild card.
“There is delicious irony in the [fact that the] man who is the biggest threat for the ANC in this election is a man who was raised and made famous in their own structures. It will be very, very interesting to see what happens in KwaZulu-Natal.”
Gauteng is also on her hotspots watch list.
“As the economic hub of our country, Gauteng is always a hotspot in any election, even though KwaZulu-Natal might be more important to the bigger picture this time around with the battle for votes between the ANC and MK,” Ntuli said.
For Fumani Shikwambana, spokesperson for Msaada Development, a nonprofit organisation based in Midrand, getting youth to the polls is a challenge.
The NPO does training and development, education and capacity building for communities in South Africa.
Shikwambana, who runs Vovo Vota, the organisation’s voter education campaign, spearheads the programme’s drive to educate those on voter rolls and those who aren’t participating in the upcoming elections about why their vote counts, as attendance at the polls has dropped in recent years.
“Essentially, if you look at the stats, we’ve had serious challenges in voter turnout since the original democratic election in 1994. In 1994 we had almost 89% voter turnout. Compare that to the last local government elections where it sits at 46%.”
“This shows us that more than half of South Africans are not participating in elections. Of that non-participating block, the majority are young people.”
And therein lies the rub for Shikwambana.
“The main thrust of our campaign is to encourage these non-voting young people to register, to show up at the polls and take part in the election. In short, it boils down to getting them interested in democracy.”
Shikwambana believes there are myriad reasons behind non-participation.
“It’s got to do with the makeup of the party political system. Across the spectrum, you don’t find young people included in the political system. From party to state, we have this vacuum that should be filled with the generation we’ve left behind.”
“The IEC said of the eligible citizens younger than 19, only 27% are on the voters roll. From there we make a steady recovery, because the ages 21 to 29 sit at about 46%. But that is still not enough, because that age group contains the vast majority of the population of South Africa.
“If 70% of the population only constitutes 46% on the ballot, it shows you we still have a very long way to go.”
Dr Heather A Thuynsma, senior lecturer at the University of Pretoria’s department of political science, agrees about the importance of voter education rather than campaigning.
“Voting is not something you do regularly, so it is always good to help remind voters of the procedure for when they go to their polling station. It makes the voting process less scary for the voter and more efficient for the IEC to manage,” Thuynsma told the Sunday Times.
“It is also an opportunity for all citizens to learn about what democracy is, connect the act of voting to what it means to be a responsible citizen, and to understand how you as a voter can hold your representatives to account.”
She believes the 1994 election to be unique.
“It was the culmination of decades of struggling against an oppressive regime. A euphoric occasion and a dream come true for many people who had worked hard for freedom and to have the right to vote.
“There will never be another election quite like that one. And it is hard to live up to those expectations election after election. So, a lower voter turnout compared to 1994 is to be expected.”
She does, however, believe the lower voter turnout since then has not happened without reason.
“The downturn is more than ‘natural attrition’. It is an indication that people feel more removed from, or disillusioned about, the democratic system. That they are unfamiliar with the mechanics of voting and unaware of what the act of voting means for their future,” Thynsma said.
“They forget the number one lesson: decisions are made by people who show up!”
Sphamandla Mhlongo, project manager at the Democracy Development Program, said: “We are nervously watching the build-up. We are hoping the amount of choices available to voters will get South Africans fired up and to the voting booths this year.
“I hope the outcome of this election will show our citizens and the world outside our borders that our system still works.
“The media loves to reflect on the 1994 elections and all these positive stories are coming out. The last 10 to 15 years the stories were very negative, and I think that might be one of the reasons our youth feel disconnected.
“This, while we have so many jewels like the birth of our democracy to show the world,” he said.
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