With 10 days to the election, the ANC’s approval rating is strengthening as party veterans join President Cyril Ramaphosa on the campaign trail in an intensified drive to win votes.
Before the party rolled out its election machinery, it was polling at about 45% support or worse. However, since its campaign received a boost from former presidents Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe, as well as others, the party has moved closer to the 50% mark.
Ramaphosa also seems to still enjoy the trust of some South Africans, and this is likely to boost ANC prospects, according to University of Johannesburg research.
The research, released earlier this week, suggests 77% of South Africans who still trust Ramaphosa are most likely to vote for the ANC. Polls done by both Ipsos and the Social Research Foundation (SRF) similarly show there has been an uptick in support for the ANC in recent weeks.
These polls have consistently indicated that support for the ruling party will dip below 50% for the first time since the 1994 election. If the outcome of the election mirrors the polls, the ANC will need a coalition partner to continue governing at the national level.
A low voter turnout will be to the advantage of the ANC, as it is likely to push the party closer to 50%
Parties such as the Jacob Zuma-led MK Party are expected to put a dent in ANC support. Zuma, who enjoys huge support in the ANC, announced in December that he would back the MK Party on May 29.
According to the latest Ipsos poll, a low voter turnout would see between 41% and 43% of registered voters heading to the polls, while a medium turnout would mean between 57% and 59%. A turnout of between 74% and 76% would occur only “if voter enthusiasm reaches its peak”.
However, Ipsos says it is unrealistic to expect a high voter turnout “due to the current sentiment among voters”. A low voter turnout will be to the advantage of the ANC, as it is likely to push the party closer to 50%.
According to Ipsos, a low voter turnout is likely to see the ANC achieving 46%, the DA 20%, the EFF 10.3%, the MK Party 8.9%, the IFP 3.4%, and the other parties a combined 11.4%.
The SRF’s daily tracking of support on a voter turnout of 66% has the ANC on an upward trajectory. It says the ANC moved from 36.4% on April 16 to 45.1% on May 16 — a period of intense campaigning by all parties. The research also shows the DA falling from 27.2% to 22.6% in the same period, and the EFF declining from 9.6% to 8.1%.
New entrants the MK Party went from 10.3% to 11.1%, with the IFP going from 2.9% to 4.2%. The rest of the parties, considered together, dropped from 12.2% to 8.5%.
According to the SRF, if the elections were held today with a 60% turnout, the ANC would achieve 46.2%, the DA 24.3%, the EFF 7.3%, the MK Party 9%, the IFP 4.2%, and the other parties 9%.
A 56% turnout, according to the SRF, would see the ANC achieving 47.4%, the DA 26.6%, the EFF 7.1%, the MK Party 9%, the IFP 4.2% and the other parties 5.7%.
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