The ANC has drawn a line in the sand on a future government of national unity (GNU), signalling it will not permit any changes to transformative policies such as BEE and worker-friendly labour laws.
As a power-sharing accord took shape this week, with the ANC and DA taking centre stage, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s closest ally, Frans Baleni, said a straight coalition with the DA would have given ammunition to the ANC’s enemies, while the GNU model would be more acceptable to the markets.
“The markets would have punished the country. So this option the ANC has now taken was a much safer option and it also counters those who were going to use disinformation to attack the ANC,” Baleni, a former trade unionist, told the Sunday Times.
He said it would not be possible to work with the EFF or the MK Party of former president Jacob Zuma. ANC leaders say the EFF had made it clear in their previous meetings that they would not participate in any GNU arrangement.
A top DA official who did not want to be named said the party welcomed the opportunity to give the country political stability for the five years that a GNU could last until the next elections.
With negotiations still at an early stage, ANC insiders have suggested that a future president would consult the parties in the GNU about cabinet appointments, which would be allocated among all of them.
However, the ANC, forced to find power-sharing partners after its dismal 40% showing in the elections, is insisting on a “minimum programme” that its negotiators have presented to potential GNU members.
In addition, the ANC wants to maintain its “human rights-based” foreign policy stance, a reference to support for the Palestinian cause. This means the ANC does not want the new government to withdraw South Africa’s case against Israel in the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
The party is asking its potential partners to commit to protecting the constitution and the rule of law — something with which the DA has no argument. Some of elements of the minimum agreement include:
- protecting the social security network;
- improving health and education systems;
- ending load shedding;
- growing the country’s mining industry and infrastructure networks;
- restructuring SOEs; and
- promoting equitable land ownership.
The party also wants to protect the newly passed laws such as the National Health Insurance Act, the Procurement Act, the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act and the GBV and Femicide Act.
The dominant view within the ANC is that it should not yield control of several key parliamentary positions, such as speaker of the National Assembly and the chairing of strategic committees such as the standing committee on finance, the portfolio committees of defence and justice, and the joint standing committee on intelligence.
The party’s highest decision-making body, the national executive committee (NEC), this week decided to invite all political parties to form a GNU instead of opting for a specific coalition partner or partners.
Insiders said the ANC was leaning towards a confidence and supply arrangement, where parties would where parties agree to vote together on key issues and agree to make concessions on other issues. The ANC is said to want a situation where there is an agreement on:
- passing legislation;
- how executive decisions will be taken; and
- a national dialogue that could lead to electoral reforms.
Baleni said the option of a GNU was the safest for the ANC. It had been discussed by the president with veterans such as former presidents Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe, among others.
“TM [Mbeki] had this thing of dialogue before the elections and there was a lot of inputs. Because the dilemma was that if the ANC goes with the DA, it would have been suicidal for both parties politically.
“The markets would be happy and the rand would be stronger, but politically this would have given those who like to fight ammunition to campaign against the ANC and claim that it has sold the country to white people, and undermine the nonracial policy of the ANC,” said Baleni.
Neither Ramaphosa or Deputy President Paul Mashatile are on the ANC’s negotiating team, which is led by secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and includes four other national officials. They hit the ground running this week, meeting their counterparts from several other parties.
They spent the entire day yesterday in talks with DA negotiators. DA federal council chair Helen Zille said she and her colleagues would brief the party’s federal council tomorrow. Another DA leader said yesterday’s talks ended with a “general and broad agreement on principles and priorities”.
The ANC is racing against time to craft agreements with all parties ahead of the first sitting of parliament — which must take place by June 16 and during which the National Assembly speaker and the president will be elected.
It’s a pact, the deal starts with the legislature, you choreograph this thing. You first start with speaker, deputy speaker, then you appoint the president, then he is inaugurated … and he then consults on the cabinet
— ANC NEC member
The parties that agree to join the GNU will have to sign binding pacts with the ANC, which will serve as undertakings for co-operation. These will include promises to support the ANC in electing a president of its choosing and, depending on how negotiations go, an ANC speaker as well.
“It’s a pact, the deal starts with the legislature, you choreograph this thing. You first start with speaker, deputy speaker, then you appoint the president, then he is inaugurated … and he then consults on the cabinet,” said an NEC member.
“The cabinet is going to be decided at the end, once we have elected the speaker and the president is in office.”
A DA leader, who asked not to be named as he is not authorised to speak on the matter, said the party was encouraged by the ANC’s proposed “political agreement” on stabilising government for at least five years.
He noted South Africa has no legislation governing coalition governments and said: “It will have to be a political agreement. In our experience with other coalitions, these are political agreements, so I don’t know if they have [thought of] other kinds of mechanisms. And when we were proposing laws around these things, this is exactly what we had in mind. We foresaw some of the pitfalls. So it will have to be a political agreement between people who are serious about stability.”
In turn, the ANC will commit to appointing ministers and deputy ministers from the other parties in the GNU.
“What we envision is a situation in terms of the cabinet, which is similar to how the president currently operates with the [tripartite] alliance,” said an NEC insider.
“In terms of cabinet, the president will consult with the alliance, they [Cosatu and SACP] make their proposals and then the president will consider what is on the table and accommodate this demand when necessary. I think this will be the same model exercised going forward. The president will consult the GNU and then he will appoint his cabinet.”
So far it appears that most of the country’s parties are willing to join a GNU, with insiders saying some had already backtracked on what they had originally claimed were non-negotiable issues.
Party insiders say negotiators who met with the MK Party delegation on Friday were surprised by the cordial nature of the meeting.
It is understood the MK Party delegation, led by former minister Nathi Nhleko, former South African Revenue Service commissioner Tom Moyane and secretary-general Sihle Ngubane, did not insist on the removal of Ramaphosa and did not object to the ANC’s insistence that partners respect and protect the constitution. MK Party leader Jacob Zuma has repeatedly denounced Ramaphosa. Another ANC leader said the MK Party delegation appeared unprepared and just honoured the meeting to show they were willing to talk. A follow-up meeting is scheduled for tomorrow.
The DA is believed to prefer Ramaphosa to remain president.
A DA leader with intimate knowledge of the discussions said the party’s federal executive (Fedex) had mandated the negotiating team to present their founding principles for a coalition government to the ANC before entertaining conversation around the sharing of positions in either government or parliament.
“We are nowhere near that. What is critical this weekend is for the two parties to agree on the principles that will inform the shaping and design of the coalition government, if indeed we agree on that,” this source said.
“We will have to go back to Fedex and federal council and ask for a mandate in terms of positions, should this weekend’s meeting lead to that. If we agreed on the founding principles, we can go to parliament to elect the president and deal with the composition of government after that process. That’s where we are at the moment.”
Another high-ranking DA member said the party was sure the founding principles it had proposed to the ANC were reasonable, but they would make it difficult for the MK Party and the EFF to come on board.
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