The ANC’s midterm meeting, dubbed its national general council (NGC), is likely to be the platform where different factions in the party will test their strength in the run-up to the national conference that is to choose President Cyril Ramaphosa’s successor.
The NGC, in June 2025, will also indicate whether Ramaphosa’s government of national unity (GNU) has the backing of grassroots members of the ANC. Many in the party predict two factions will emerge just before the NGC — one supporting deputy president Paul Mashatile, and the other backing secretary-general Fikile Mbalula.
Whichever faction emerges as the stronger could determine whether the GNU survives until the 2029 elections.
While Mbalula has publicly threatened to deal harshly with those who prematurely start the succession debate, he is believed to be one of the main contenders for the top job.
Trip to China
The genesis of Mbalula’s campaign is said to have been during a trip to China by the ANC’s provincial and national leaders. It is there, some say, that Mbalula and his posse concocted a plan that could land him in the Union Buildings.
While it might be argued that a discussion of the 2027 ANC national conference less than two years after the party’s current national executive committee (NEC) was elected is premature, machinations in the organisation suggest some in the party are already moving in that direction.
During the China trip in July 2023, it is believed Mbalula forged an alliance with powerful provincial secretaries, including KwaZulu-Natal’s Bheki Mtolo and Eastern Cape’s Lulama Ngcukayitobi, clinching a deal that would propel him to the 10th floor of Luthuli House — the presidential one.
These leaders, who together control 45% of the ANC’s delegations to the national conference, would be the engine behind a Mbalula campaign. Mbalula also has the backing of his pal Mduduzi Manana, the powerful head of organising.
With the two leaders firmly in charge of managing branches nationally, this faction would be almost indestructible and have the power to determine the next leader of the party. While Manana is said to be aiming to be secretary-general, Mbalula is also courting Sihle Zikalala, who is senior to Manana, and Mdumiseni Ntuli, another hopeful.
“Part of the debate around Mbalula is that he is young, and [this is] also relevant when you look at our political contenders, [also] young people. If Paul emerges [as party president], it will be difficult for him to become [state] president because [the] DA will not support him, and that will also [need to] be taken into cognisance. Helen [Zille] has also been close to Mbalula, and if he emerges [as party and then state president], it will not be difficult to continue with the GNU as it stands,” one provincial leader said.
The first casualty of this engine-room alliance was one Oscar Mabuyane, who until the China trip had the backing of his allies Ngcukayitobi and Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams in his ambition to become president or deputy president.
Helen [Zille] has also been close to Mbalula, and if he emerges [as ANC president], it will not be difficult to continue with the GNU as it stands
— Anonymous ANC provincial leader
The simmering tension between Mabuyane and his friends Ndabeni-Abrahams and Ngcukayitobi had been contained owing to their alliance with Ramaphosa and the common goal for Mabuyane to ascend to national office.
Regional wars in Chris Hani (Mabuyane’s region) and OR Tambo, which Ndabeni-Abrahams and Ngcukayitobi call home, threatened this fragile alliance, which eventually collapsed.
The China trip is said to have led to a resolution that Ndabeni-Abrahams would campaign for deputy president while Ngcukayitobi would receive support to take over as party chairperson.
Mabuyane felt the sting of Ngcukayitobi and Ndabeni-Abrahams’ betrayal when he was placed lower down on the provincial list in a move many of his allies believe was a calculated attempt by Ngcukayitobi to elbow him out of the provincial premiership race.
Mabuyane, who also harbours ambitions for the top job, has now realigned with his former opponent Babalo Madikizela, who during the 2022 Eastern Cape conference controlled 40% of the delegation.
While some believe Mabuyane is being overambitious in setting his sights on the presidency, given that he has never led nationally, if he manages to secure Eastern Cape’s backing, he will have enough leverage to gain support from other provinces.
However, this realignment could be short-lived, as it is believed Madikizela is loyal to Paul Mashatile.
Though it is ANC tradition that the deputy president should ascend to the position of party president, Mashatile appears to be receiving a lot of pushback, with exposés on his previous flashy lifestyle coming back to haunt him. These could destabilise his ambitions.
His machinations in 2022, when he is said to have betrayed the provinces that had supported him in the hope that he would back Zweli Mkhize for the presidency, will also not help him at the 2027 conference.
KwaZulu-Natal, for instance, is unlikely to fully back him, and this is also the case with the Stan Mathabatha and Danny Msiza factions in Limpopo.
They strongly believe Mashatile betrayed them on the eve of the conference by clinching a deal with Ramaphosa, whom he also assisted in 2017 by means of the unity slate he concocted with David Mabuza.
But some in this faction believe Mashatile still stands a good chance of getting their support, which will obviously come with strings attached. Several say he will get their backing only if he promises to support Maropene Ramokgopa as his deputy.
Strongwomen
The deputy president position is also likely to be contested by other strongwomen in the ANC.
Treasurer-general Gwen Ramokgopa, who has enjoyed the support of Cyril Ramaphosa in every aspect of her political career, is a possible contender.
In second place comes Nomvula Mokonyane, who is now said to enjoy a close relationship with Ramaphosa. Mokonyane also has huge support in Gauteng, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal.
Mmamoloko Kubayi is expected to make another attempt at the deputy president position — this time with the support of both Ramaphosa and Gwede Mantashe.
The Mashatile question creates a headache for Ramaphosa, who would ordinarily be pondering how to pay Mashatile back for his unwavering support at the 2017 and 2022 conferences.
Some of Mashatile’s supporters believe those who oppose his becoming president of the party could end up killing the ANC.
“Paul has to emerge as the next ANC president unless you want to kill the ANC. I think all provinces will stand behind Paul,” said an ANC NEC member and Mashatile sympathiser.
Some in Gauteng believe Panyaza Lesufi would be the contingency plan if Mashatile found himself on the wrong side of the law
With the ANC likely to struggle to get more than 50% at the polls in the near future, the party will probably have to enter into a coalition.
Mashatile’s ascendancy is liable to cause a headache for the ANC, as the DA has made it clear it would opt out of the GNU if he were elected president.
The other view is that the DA’s departure from the GNU would not necessarily be a bad thing, as Mashatile is facing a barrage of investigations that could result in him having to step aside if he faces criminal charges. According to News24, the Special Investigating Unit is sniffing through the deputy president’s backyard.
Some in Gauteng believe Panyaza Lesufi would be the contingency plan if Mashatile found himself on the wrong side of the law. Mbalula’s recent antics have ensured Lesufi is at least in the peripheral vision of ANC members outside Gauteng.
Several WhatsApp groups have been created in support of Lesufi, who is seen as opposed to the GNU.
Lesufi has said he harbours no ambitions for a national position. However, some believe he would be lobbied to be a Gauteng candidate.
Mbalula’s decision to summon Lesufi to Luthuli House this week and his alleged push to have the Gauteng provincial executive council (PEC) disbanded is said to be firmly aligned with his ambitions.
He is said to believe Gauteng would rather back Mashatile or Lesufi. But some senior leaders say Mbalula should not be acting in this manner in relation to Gauteng.
“Mbalula should have asked some of us before engaging in a full-blown attack on the Gauteng PEC. Gauteng has never come to the conference united — never. In Gauteng, you can never get all of it to support you. You can get [only] a region, or even [just a] subregion, [to do this]. Gauteng has never come united,” said the ANC senior leader.
“The PEC may be united, but on the ground it’s a different story ... He should have asked some of us to analyse the situation, and we would have told him these people are never one.”
Meanwhile, KwaZulu-Natal is likely to go with either Senzo Mchunu or Zweli Mkhize. Mbalula is also said to be pushing for the disbandment of the PEC in that province.
The two KwaZulu-Natal heavyweights, who ran for president and deputy president respectively, are likely to enjoy support from some regions in the province. However, Mkhize could find it difficult to claw back enough support in KwaZulu-Natal to put up a fight, as he has fallen out with officials in the province.
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