In the second half of 2024, South African politics underwent a seismic shift which saw political foes becoming allies in a government of national unity.
Despite the ANC having lost the elections, President Cyril Ramaphosa, the leader of the party, reversed the historical loss and emerged as the leader of a coalition government.
While his negotiating skills ensured that the ANC continued to control the levers of power, his grip on his GNU partners and his cabinet was tested. This led to a series of public spats between the ANC and the DA, both vying to assume control.
Ramaphosa took on the challenge, playing his part convincingly on the world stage. Despite this triumph, Ramaphosa will contend with many challenges this year, which include:
ANC internal factions
The ANC is expected to hold its midterm policy review meeting, known as the national general council, where Ramaphosa and his national executive committee will gauge whether the decision to enter into a GNU has received assent from its lower structures. This meeting of the ANC has in the past been used by those in leadership to test the waters on whether they could ascend to the highest office when the party heads to its elective conferences two years after it sits.
Some detractors who have been vocal in their disapproval of the GNU are likely to use this platform to undermine Ramaphosa. The meeting will also test whether Ramaphosa retains the support of grassroots members following the party’s electoral losses.
DA factional battles
It is an open secret that the DA was split into two factions when entering into negotiations to form a government with the ANC in 2024. DA federal council chair Helen Zille was lobbying internally for the party to negotiate for control over parliament in an agreement that would see the ANC continuing to govern. Zille's faction saw the method as a way for the DA to expose the ANC’s incompetence — a supposedly sure path to the DA’s ascension to power in later years.
Meanwhile a faction led by DA leader John Steenhuisen is said to have been eager to get into the government to prove that the country could recover only if the DA was at the helm.
The DA will hold its elective conference next year where Steenhuisen is likely to be challenged by a leader who enjoys Zille’s support. Should Steenhuisen lose the election, those within Ramaphosa’s camp at the Union Buildings fear that it could threaten the working relationship they enjoy with the DA.
G20 summit
This summit of global leaders will be Ramaphosa’s biggest project to secure investment and demonstrate to the world that the GNU is firmly behind his government. Despite opposing views, the GNU partners have a singular mission during the summit to ensure that the world’s superpowers leave the country with renewed hope and a willingness to expand their trade relations with South Africa. Ramaphosa triumph with the energy crisis will help to demonstrate South Africa’s commitment to rebuilding its economy while also showing a commitment to a just energy transition.
The G20 summit is also an opportunity for Pretoria to demonstrate to the US why it should be awarded another term to benefit from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which brings in billions to the economy.
Donald Trump
During US president-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office, Pretoria and Washington’s trade relations ran uninterrupted despite the odd threat from Trump over wild statements about “land and farm seizures” and the “large-scale killing of farmers”.
However Trump is now more popular both within his party and among US voters. The incoming US president has already threatened sanctions against the Brics bloc over its discussions about a Brics currency. South Africa’s stance against Israel and Trump’s friend — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — could also see relations between the two countries sour.
GNU’s metric for success
With the 2026 local elections coming up, the Ramaphosa-led government must deliver on its promise to change the lives of South Africans by curbing unemployment and bridging the gap between rich and poor.
Ramaphosa will have to be seen to tackle the obstacles to economic growth, such as corruption, infrastructure decay, and rampant criminality.
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