Elections have come and gone and the ANC emerged victorious, albeit with a reduced majority. It was not able to wrest the Western Cape from the DA, but did hold on to Gauteng - by the skin of its teeth.
The majority who voted for the ANC are the poor and the working class, most of whom have no access to quality health services, education, water, adequate shelter and sanitation, and most of whom are unemployed. There is a danger that their needs and aspirations, the very things that made them place their hopes in President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC, will be written out of the narrative.
Will the New Dawn be radical or just another neoliberal, conservative ethos that upholds the status quo? Will it help forge unity along the lines of the National Development Plan and social compact that is said to be Ramaphosa's strength, or will it, as is often the case, aim to please business while continuing the rhetoric of radicalism?
With the increase in unemployment, poverty and inequality, SA needs a more interventionist and developmental state. However, indications are that Ramaphosa's government will stick to the philosophy of "seeking economic growth with the rest following".
This is the overarching current dominant narrative in SA. It is mainly driven by the economic elite and sold to the poor masses through the mainstream media as the natural order of development.
Linked to this narrative is the pressure on Ramaphosa to prioritise the building of good governance across parastatals and state institutions such as the South African Revenue Service and the National Prosecuting Authority and to "exert his authority on the ANC" - whatever this means.
There is no doubt that good governance is central to a democratic state. But when this narrative disregards the parallel priority of building a better quality of life for the poor, it amounts to the marginalisation of the majority. It amounts to writing the poor out of the developmental discourse.
The current cabinet is likely to embrace a conservative path. Given the institutional and financial muscle of the economic elite, Ramaphosa's government is likely to find itself persuaded and pressured to advance the developmental views of the economic elite, a policy direction that is inherently conservative.
Questions are already being asked as to which class interests the president serves. Ramaphosa will need to tread carefully if he wants to strike a balance between the economic interests of the affluent and the developmental needs of the poor.
Achieving this balance requires five strategies.
Ramaphosa's government needs to heighten its capacity to intervene in the most poverty-stricken communities
First, grow a productive economy that creates sustainable jobs. Second, enhance the delivery of quality health care and quality education, particularly in poverty-stricken parts of society. Third, ensure sustained delivery of water and sanitation in rural areas and schools. Fourth, embark on programmes to rejuvenate key urban centres and surrounding townships. Fifth, embark on a massive programme of social and economic infrastructure development.
In this way, Ramaphosa's government could appease the high-end economic interests of the economic elite while meeting the developmental needs of the poor. His government should avoid the posture of a "neutral state", a purported class-neutral government whose duty is to mediate between class interests.
The ANC government still carries a liberation mandate - the creation of a better life for all South Africans, but especially those historically marginalised by oppressive racism.
Therefore, Ramaphosa's government needs to heighten its capacity to intervene in the most poverty-stricken communities. It needs to implement poverty-alleviating programmes and partner with a range of like-minded community-based organisations.
The interventionist focus needs to go hand in hand with developmental programmes that enhance the capacity of communities to create jobs and stimulate local economic activities. The government needs to be deliberately biased towards the upliftment of distressed individuals and communities.
Another reason this government is likely to be conservative is that the official opposition shares the same neoliberal policies as the ruling party. Their prescripts are likely to be "market-friendly" with a rhetorical nod to the poor. The dream of "a job in every household" and the doubling of social grants will go out of the window as they call for austerity measures.
The EFF, emboldened by a good showing that almost doubled its seats in parliament, will exert pressure on the ANC to adopt more extreme radical social and economic measures. It could be a counterbalance to any neoliberal stance by the government were it to focus less on the politics of spectacle, and pay more attention to agitating for social and economic changes that favour the poor.
Democracy is more than the right to vote every five years. SA's salvation may lie in a combination of supporting the government when it pursues progressive policies, an activist parliament that sees itself as a representative of the people and not deferring to the executive (as was often the case in the past), and an active and restless citizenry involved in vigorous social and civic movements.
The decline in voter turnout is an indication that the masses are increasingly losing faith in political parties. Thus, social movements are likely to increasingly assume centre stage. These movements are community-based and represent particular social and economic development needs. Prolonged joblessness, deepening poverty and the continued socioeconomic exclusion of the poor are most likely to cause heightened instability and social unrest.
In the final analysis, indications are that Ramaphosa's government is likely to pursue neoliberal policies and programmes, which will make it a conservative government, not one that pursues a radical socioeconomic agenda.
Ramaphosa's attempts to clean up squabbles within the ANC and parastatals indicate that he will be a president focused on process and systems. This is likely to be his generic approach to his official presidential term. Moreover, his general acceptability within the business sector is likely to impact on his policy choices, which will most likely be conservative and in the interests of big business. This will be a political risk, given that the poor put him in power.
Shilowa is a former premier of Gauteng province and Tembe is a political analyst and former policy chief in the Gauteng provincial government
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