In 1918, at the end of World War 1, ships returning a group of black South African soldiers stopped off in West Africa, where the Spanish flu then engulfing the world was raging. SA had been spared the pandemic until then but about 13 of the soldiers were sick by the time they docked in Cape Town.
Quarantine was arranged but security was poor and the men were quickly put onto trains to take them home all around the country. The spread was immediate and more than 300,000 South Africans died of that flu. Around the world the toll approached 50 million, more lives than the war itself had claimed.
In SA now we are merely beginning our battle with a new and potentially deadly virus. At the time of writing, 24 people had tested positive for the Covid-19 coronavirus and it is probably not an exaggeration to estimate that the real number of carriers in the country already tops 100. It is just that they have not been found.
In the UK, where confirmed cases have reached around 600, the government's scientific advisers reckon up to 10,000 people there already have the disease. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been criticised for not acting swiftly enough - his government appears to be trying to "flatten" the increase in cases for the moment, rather than to stop them outright through a programme of containment. He argues it is better to wait before adopting harsh public health measures. If he were to do so now they would simply have to be repeated at the epidemic's peak in the British summer.
In SA the government has been praised for its handling of the crisis so far. Health minister Zweli Mkhize's political star has never burned brighter. But our numbers are small and the victims, so far, well-off. We have not even begun to appreciate what life here will look like by the end of May.
By then, unless we respond much more sharply than we have until now, we will have 1,000 confirmed cases at least and multiples of that unreported. Mkhize will be much more scarce. Britain might be an admirable democracy but it is the countries and territories that reacted quickly and harshly that appear to have gotten ahead of coronavirus.
There are around 140,000 cases worldwide and the virus has taken just over 5,000 lives. Yet Hong Kong, right next to China and teeming with people, has reported just 140 or so cases and just four fatalities. Singapore has 200 cases and no deaths. Australia, deeply locked into Asia, has 160 cases and three deaths.
All of them have taken swift action. Assemblies of more than 500 people are forbidden in Australia. Schools and universities may close, as they have elsewhere. "Social distancing" - self-isolation or working from home - appears to be central to early success.
Above all, an open and rapid debate about measures beyond merely reporting openly is required here. We also need to talk frankly, now, about what happens when the official count moves past 1,000 and people in townships and distant valleys are also hacking out the dry corona cough.
(One solid piece of advice I've seen comes from Taiwan - 50 cases, one death. It advises you, upon waking in the morning, to take a deep breath and hold it for more than 10 seconds. If you can do that without any discomfort there's probably no fibrosis in your lungs and, thus, no infection.)
We have been lucky though. We can copy strategies that are working. But hurry. The government should quickly promulgate short-term regulations to get us through the worst. Confine and help old and vulnerable people. Local immune boosters and vitamin supplements are available for compromised people - the state should consider giving them to the elderly, perhaps when they collect their welfare payments.
This is only going to get worse for a while. Play all sport without spectators, if at all. Shut down theatres and cinemas. Limit all gatherings. Companies should allow (or require) staff to work from home. Schools and universities that can close and educate online should immediately do so. Restrict travel. Test much more aggressively.
The benefits of all this would be perverse in that a bad thing might be prevented and you couldn't measure the benefit. But if we don't act firmly now, by October we may wish we had. It's all very well Johnson "flattening" now while he waits for a summer peak. Down south, and bearing in mind that the coronavirus appears to prefer colder temperatures, it is worth remembering that the UK is moving into warmer temperatures and we are heading for freezing cold.
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